Global Markets Update

Worst may not be over yet for South African financial assets

Having underperformed most other EMs since the pandemic, we think that returns of financial assets in South Africa will continue to disappoint. The outlook would worsen if the African National...

23rd May 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Focus

South Africa’s election: into the unknown?

South Africa’s upcoming election looks set to herald a new era of coalition government. There are lots of permutations ranging from a centrist ANC-DA coalition to a so-called ‘doomsday coalition’ in...

23rd May 2024 · 18 mins read

India Economics Update

China’s threat to Indian manufacturing

India has made impressive progress in raising its share of global high-end electronics exports over the past few years. But, worryingly, it has failed to capture any additional market share in the...

23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Update

What will the July general election mean for the economy?

The general election on Thursday 4th July, which the Prime Minister announced today, may usher in a new political era but it is unlikely to lead to a dramatically different economic outlook. The...

22nd May 2024 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Political turmoil undermining Vietnam’s appeal

The political turmoil in Vietnam, which has led to a number of key leaders being sacked from their posts, is undermining the country’s reputation for stability, which until now has been one of its key...

20th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Iran’s succession plans unlikely to fix economic woes

The death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi yesterday creates greater uncertainty over the succession planning for the next Supreme Leader. But, taking a step back, the balance of political power...

20th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

An early look at Germany’s next general election

The next German federal election will be crucial in determining how Germany will respond to its structural economic challenges. This Update answers some key questions on what to expect from the...

20th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

DR votes, Lula intervenes, Argentine officials cheer

Dominicans are set to re-elect President Luis Abinader on Sunday and there's widespread hope among investors that his second term will see further measures to improve the public finances. Elsewhere...

17th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

ANC bets on health insurance bill, Nigeria inflation

South African President Ramaphosa's approval of the controversial National Health Insurance bill this week was a clear effort to bolster the ANC’s support ahead of the election. But it also signals...

17th May 2024 · 8 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

BI on hold, new leaders, Biden tariffs

The recent recovery in the rupiah means Bank Indonesia is unlikely to follow up April’s surprise hike with another interest rate increase when it meets on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Korea could prove to be...

17th May 2024 · 8 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Apple’s ambitions, Iran port deal, Russian oil

The government's announcement this week of a long-term contract to develop and operate a port in Iran through which India will be able to transport goods into Central Asia is an illustration of how...

17th May 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economics Update

India’s geopolitical balancing act

India is benefitting economically from maintaining its historical non-aligned stance in response to tensions between the West and Russia, and Iran to a lesser extent. But notwithstanding a potential...

16th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

How will Mexico’s election affect nearshoring prospects?

The policies of the Mexican presidential frontrunner, Claudia Sheinbaum, would provide a more supportive environment for the nearshoring of manufacturing supply chains. But we doubt that she’ll carry...

16th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Update

S. Africa’s economy on the backfoot ahead of election

The latest hard activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy contracted in the first quarter of 2024 and, regardless of the outcome of the upcoming election, this ongoing weakness will put...

15th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Focus

South Africa: a closer look at the EFF’s policies

A key concern around South Africa’s upcoming election is that the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) could get into government as part of what’s being dubbed in some quarters as a “doomsday...

14th May 2024 · 15 mins read