Asia Economics Update The Philippines: Marcos Jr.’s mid-term scorecard Three years into his six-year term, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines has passed key reforms to improve the country’s business environment and infrastructure. However, worries about... 12th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The Trump-Putin meeting & implications for the Ukraine war The announcement that Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday has increased the possibility of a scenario in which the Ukraine war ends on terms favourable to Russia. That could... 11th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Trump-Putin meeting, chip tariffs, hawkish CNB The touted Trump-Putin meeting next week has re-focused attention on efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, but we are sceptical much will be achieved given Putin’s maximalist territorial... 8th August 2025 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump tees up a fresh twist for the oil market OPEC+'s decision to raise output further in September and Trump's smaller-than-expected secondary tariff announcement on India added up to a bearish combination for oil prices, as they fell by just... 8th August 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Can India wean itself off Russian oil? India could in principle find suppliers other than Russia to meet its energy needs relatively easily with little economic impact. Indeed, Indian oil refiners are reportedly reducing their purchases... 5th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Payrolls move the narrative back in the doves’ favour The downside surprise to payrolls in July and significant downward revisions to May and June have left markets convinced that the Fed will cut in September, which is looking more likely but isn’t a... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Politburo prioritises supply-side over demand-side The readout from today’s Politburo meeting strikes a less dovish tone compared with the previous meeting on economic affairs back in April and stops short of committing to any additional monetary or... 30th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Japan won’t experience a fiscal crisis anytime soon Most of the recent increase in long-term bond yields appears to have been driven by higher expectations for short-term interest rates as well as reduced demand from traditional investors in long-dated... 30th July 2025 · 19 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Observations from the surge in EM FX bond issuance The continued rise in EM sovereign FX debt sales this year suggests that EM governments have accepted the need to issue at higher yields, but are doing so at shorter maturities than in the past. And... 29th July 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update China trip notes – shrugging off trade tensions We spent last week in Beijing and Shanghai visiting clients. The mood in China was not as downbeat as a year ago and our sense is that many companies and residents have adapted to the new normal of... 29th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thai-Cambodia border clashes, more trade deals agreed Border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia have led to falls in Thai financial markets, but the broader economic fallout should be modest. Other risks, which include deflation, political uncertainty... 25th July 2025 · 9 mins read
Event Drop-In: Is Japan’s fiscal situation reaching a breaking point? 23rd July 2025, 9:00AM BST The LDP’s weak performance in the Upper House elections signals pressure for looser fiscal policy, just as the Bank of Japan is constrained from tackling rising inflation in the face
Japan Economics Update LDP election defeat points to looser fiscal policy in Japan With Japan’s ruling coalition losing its majority in the Upper House, fiscal policy may be loosened over the coming months. However, we think that the outlook for monetary policy will be a more... 21st July 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Nigeria inflation, South Africa G20 & low inflation Nigeria’s inflation slowed again last month, and we think high real interest rates and a stable naira will allow disinflation to continue. The surprise rise in core inflation, however, is likely to... 18th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Lula and Trump up the ante The USTR’s opening of a Section 301 investigation into Brazil this week and Lula’s fiery rhetoric in response makes it even harder to see a way in which Brazil avoids punitive US tariffs. The hit to... 18th July 2025 · 5 mins read
