Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Trump and Saudi-US relations, IMF growth downgrades

Donald Trump has laid out his intentions of restoring warm ties with Saudi Arabia if he wins re-election, with the intention of pulling Saudi back into the US’s orbit in a fracturing global economy...

18th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Venezuela’s election: time for change?

The latest polls suggest that the opposition is on track to win Venezuela’s election later this month but President Maduro is likely to do all he can to cling on to power. If he manages to do so...

18th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Capital Daily

Treasury yield curve inversion nears its end?

We expect short-term US Treasury yields to keep falling more rapidly than long-term ones, eventually putting an end to more than two years of an inverted yield curve.

16th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Four key points on Trump & financial markets

Recent events have increased the perceived likelihood of another Trump presidency and, in the process, provided a clearer steer on how market participants expect such an outcome to affect key...

15th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria rate cuts, Kenya instability, Ghana inflation

Nigeria’s central bank governor this week hinted that rate cuts may soon be on the cards but there are still upside inflation risks on the horizon that could scupper those plans. Meanwhile, Kenyan...

12th July 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

France struggling (and not just at football)

France has made little progress towards forming a new government since the second round of the elections last Sunday. But when a new administration is eventually formed, it will struggle to agree a...

12th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Kenya: sovereign default risks on the rise again

Recent protests in Kenya have dealt a heavy blow to President Ruto’s fiscal consolidation plans and, with the president dismissing the cabinet yesterday as he tries to cling on to power, it looks...

12th July 2024 · 5 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Budget and geopolitics in focus

The full Budget for FY24/25 - which will be unveiled on 23rd July - will provide an important indication of how much the BJP is willing to concede to its coalition partners. Meanwhile, developments...

12th July 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Focus

UK Focus: Reeves' growth speech and the government's economic priorities

This report was originally published on 10th July, 2024 The speech this morning by Chancellor Rachel Reeves attempts to do two things: reset the narrative around growth, following an October Budget...

10th July 2024 · 15 mins read

Japan Economics Update

More dynamism not lifting productivity yet

While there are tentative signs that Japan’s economy is becoming more dynamic, this has yet to produce significant improvements in aggregate productivity. We still think that a more meaningful pick-up...

10th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

We still think the euro will fare well against the pound

In the wake of the political tumult in France contrasting with newfound stability in the UK, the outlook for the exchange rate between the euro and sterling has come into spotlight. We think that...

9th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

What next for France?

The results of France’s parliamentary elections mean it should avoid the large, unfunded fiscal expansion that two of the three major political groups were advocating. But it also means France is very...

8th July 2024 · 9 mins read

Europe Economics Update

German budget deal only moderately encouraging

The budget deal struck by the governing coalition in Germany reduces the risk of the country being forced into early elections. But it does little to address Germany’s structural problems, in part...

8th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Wait-and-see in markets as France avoids far-right PM

The surprising results of the French legislative elections have not triggered much of a market reaction. While investors appear to have been relieved by the far-right National Rally (RN)’s failure to...

8th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Lula’s attacks threaten more political influence at BCB

Brazil’s President Lula has renewed his attacks on the central bank and high interest rates in recent weeks, raising fears that there could be more political influence on monetary policy from next...

8th July 2024 · 5 mins read