Canada Economics Weekly

Canada Weekly: Carney should find support for stimulus despite minority

Although Mark Carney’s Liberal Party just missed out on a majority in the election this week, the conciliatory tones from the Bloc Québécois suggest that the government should find the support needed...

2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe Weekly: Russia heading to recession? Romania election re-run

The latest data out of Russia suggest that the economic slowdown we expected is happening more abruptly than we thought likely. A technical recession over the first half of this year is now a clear...

2nd May 2025 · 8 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: Inflation risks remain two-sided, Labor leads in polls

With underlying inflation having returned to its 2-3% target range in Q1, the RBA is all but certain to cut rates by 25bp at its meeting later this month. However, given that timely data point to...

2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

What to make of the US-Ukraine minerals deal?

This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown. The deal may provide more US support for...

1st May 2025 · 5 mins read

Climate Economics Monthly

Tariffs and green tech; Canada’s “carbon tax” election

New US tariffs announced this month will raise the cost of green technologies and add to the growing list of headwinds facing the green transition under President Trump. Meanwhile, the Liberals’...

30th April 2025 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

Critical mineral tug of war is not a major macro risk

This Update answers several key questions on critical minerals and the economic implications. In short, there is no quick fix to securing access to minerals given the extent of China’s advantage...

30th April 2025 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Five questions on Romania’s rescheduled election

This Update answers five key questions on Romania’s rescheduled presidential election, the first round of which takes place on Sunday 4th May. A victory for far-right frontrunner George Simion would...

29th April 2025 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Update

Trump, the global economy and the next 100 days

President Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought substantial shifts in US policy. The next 100 will start to reveal whether his presidency is causing a realignment of the global economy. There...

29th April 2025 · 7 mins read

Canada Economics Update

What does the election mean for Canada's economy and markets?

Although the Liberals have just missed out on a majority, Prime Minister Mark Carney should still be able to implement his fiscal plans with support from the NDP or Bloc Québécois. If anything, the...

29th April 2025 · 4 mins read

Asia Economics Update

The economic impact of rising tensions in Kashmir

Provided it was limited just to Kashmir, a period of fighting between Pakistani and Indian forces would have a small impact on the overall economy of either country. The closing of the only land trade...

28th April 2025 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe Weekly: Russia-Ukraine peace talks, CEE fiscal deficits

The US has been pushing harder over the past week to achieve a peace deal that Russia is willing to accept. But the more concessions that are offered to Putin, the less willing Ukraine will be to...

25th April 2025 · 8 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: JD Vance in India, Kashmir, flash PMIs, dovish RBI

US Vice President JD Vance was in India this week talking up progress on a potential trade deal as well as hailing the strength of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Meanwhile, India’s...

25th April 2025 · 4 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Politburo Meeting (Apr. 2025)

The meeting readout signalled that monetary policy easing is still on its way and that existing plans for fiscal spending will be accelerated. It stopped short of committing to additional deficit...

25th April 2025 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: OPEC+, Saudi-US nuclear talks, Egypt-Qatar investment

OPEC+’s new compensatory cuts appear to a sign of the larger Gulf states seeking to regain market share from the group’s overproducers. But a renewed fall in oil prices could derail these plans...

17th April 2025 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

IMF & World Bank meet in Trump’s shadow

The Spring Meetings of the World Bank and IMF take place next week under the cloud not just of US trade protectionism but also the Trump administration’s seeming hostility towards multilateral...

17th April 2025 · 6 mins read