Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Germany defence fund, ECB cuts The special fund for defence proposed by Germany’s presumptive next Chancellor Friedrich Merz would secure funding for defence spending to rise from 2% of GDP to 3.5% and make budget negotiations a... 28th February 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Seven points on the UK-US trade deal The "economic" trade deal that Starmer and Trump talked about at the White House this week may mean the UK avoids any new tariffs on its exports to the US. But since we didn't think such tariffs would... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Rising US tariffs to test China’s exchange rate policy With US tariffs now escalating, the key question is whether the People’s Bank (PBOC) will allow the exchange rate to adjust in response. We think it ultimately will, just as it did during the first... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Jump in Korea’s fertility rate, Indonesia’s new sovereign wealth fund Figures published earlier this week showed the fertility rate in Korea increased last year for the first time in nine years. However, we think this was mainly due to a post-COVID rebound in marriages... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Update Is the EU backsliding on climate policy? The EU’s Clean Industrial Deal and Omnibus packages mark a shift in climate policy as pushback against the costs of climate action grows. With the EU less willing to impose costs on the private sector... 27th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia & Ukraine: mapping out a post-war future An end to the war in Ukraine would fundamentally change the economic outlook for Russia and Ukraine, but a lot would depend on the nature of any peace agreement. A deal that involves large-scale... 27th February 2025 · 26 mins read
Global Economics Update Is Trump’s opening to Russia a “Reverse Nixon”? President Trump’s attempts to reset relations with Russia have led some to suggest that he may be attempting to break apart the Sino-Russian alliance as Nixon did in the early 1970s (although in Nixon... 27th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Could uncertainty weigh on the global economy? Instead of clearing up the uncertainty about the direction of US economic policy, Donald Trump’s victory in last November’s presidential election has only magnified it, with threats of massive... 27th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Ukraine minerals deal? This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown and the deal suggests that US support for... 26th February 2025 (Updated 1st May 2025) · 5 mins read
Event China Drop-In: 2025 NPC – Setting policy goals in a trickier global environment 5th March 2025, 8:00AM GMT This year’s National People’s Congress (NPC) is taking place against a difficult backdrop for China’s economy; stimulus efforts have so far had only a fleeting impact on activ
China Economics Update Here’s what China can offer to buy from the US The chances of a trade deal between the US and China, similar to the Phase One deal of Trump's first term, appear to be rising. In this note, first published in February, we examined what China could... 25th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Focus Assessing the post-Ukraine war energy landscape While some Russian pipeline gas flows into the EU could resume as part of any Ukraine-Russia peace deal, at most such supplies would probably only recover to about a quarter of pre-invasion levels... 24th February 2025 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update German election: your questions answered Following yesterday’s federal election in Germany, this Update answers questions raised by clients in our on-line briefing (which can be viewed here). 24th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Federal Election There was never any doubt that the centre right CDU would come out on top of the German federal election and that its leader Friedrich Merz would become the next German Chancellor . The first exit... 23rd February 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: What would a “dirty deal” for Russia-Ukraine mean? The US-Russia meeting this week to seek an end to the war in Ukraine has clearly raised the possibility that a peace deal is negotiated quickly and on terms more favourable to Russia (a so called... 21st February 2025 · 9 mins read
