Climate Economics Monthly

Canada EV tariffs; Is Trump warming to EVs?

While Canada's tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles are unlikely to have a major impact on China's green exports, it is another example of broader global fracturing between China and the West...

30th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

New bosses for Pemex and the BCB

The nomination of Gabriel Galípolo, an ally of President Lula, as the next head of Brazil’s central bank has raised concerns about the politicisation of monetary policy (and a dovish tilt). But...

30th August 2024 · 8 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Normal gold service resumes; OPEC+’s conundrum

While the stonking rally in gold prices earlier this year was at odds with traditional market drivers, the latest leg up in gold prices – which saw the nominal price reach yet another fresh record...

30th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland’s generous budget, Israel-Hezbollah

The Polish government’s draft budget for 2025 announced this week suggests that fiscal policy will be more expansionary than we had previously expected next year. While that poses an upside risk to...

30th August 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Libya’s crisis, Egypt’s central bank meeting

The oil market was rocked by two political shocks in the past week: an exchange of missiles between Israel and Hezbollah and a crisis in Libya, which led to cuts to its oil output. At the margin, the...

29th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Progress towards Capital Markets Union will be slow

Capital Markets Union (CMU) is regarded by many European policymakers as one of the key reforms needed to close the gap between EU and US productivity. But a full CMU is a long way off, and in any...

28th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Ukraine’s Kursk offensive, CBRT’s forward guidance

Ukraine's surprise incursion into Russia continued this week and although developments are highly uncertain at this stage, it has big implications for the war. On balance, we think it could delay any...

23rd August 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Economics Update

EU semiconductor industry will continue to lag behind

Although the EU is making progress in expanding its semiconductor production capacity, including through a new plant in Dresden, it is still a long way behind the US and Asia and is unlikely to catch...

23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico’s constitutional reforms: Amlo’s parting shot?

The swearing in of a new congress next month gives Mexico’s outgoing president, Amlo, a one month window to re-start plans to pass controversial planned constitutional amendments. At the very least...

22nd August 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Ceasefire latest, CBE governor stays on, PIF annual report

The US government has pushed for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas this week, but an agreement seems some way off still. A deal would benefit Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, whose economies...

22nd August 2024 · 6 mins read

Commodities Update

Recycling’s role in securing critical minerals and metals

China’s announcement last week that it would curb exports of antimony, a critical mineral, was another example of global fracturing unfolding in the commodities arena. Recycling offers an obvious way...

21st August 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

What impact will the recent wave of EM protests have?

The protests that have swept several EMs in recent weeks are likely to have a longer-lasting economic impact in countries with weak balance sheets and/or where they lead to a major shift in policy. To...

20th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

War in Gaza still holding Israel’s economy back

Israel’s economy slowed more than expected in Q2 as weak investment and supply constraints continued to hold back activity. A ceasefire to halt the conflict in Gaza would clearly be positive for the...

19th August 2024 · 4 mins read

US Economics Update

Harris unveils populist economic plan

Kamala Harris unveiled her economic plan today and it appears to be focused on mostly small-scale pocket-book populist issues. Our main take-away is that, like her opponent Donald Trump, she has shied...

16th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentine inflation, Brazil’s hawks, change in Venezuela?

Suggestions from the governments of Brazil and Colombia have led to a bit of movement towards solving Venezuela’s post-election stand-off. A lot remains uncertain, but our sense is that the likelihood...

16th August 2024 · 6 mins read