Asia Economics Weekly

Sri Lanka election risks, new Indonesia rate forecast

Sri Lanka has enjoyed a steady, if unspectacular recovery from the 2022 debt default crisis. However, this progress could be put at risk depending on the results of this weekend’s presidential...

20th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EMs: key client questions answered

We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on...

16th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Amlo’s last hurrah, oil price drop, Fed easing and Lat Am

Outgoing Mexican President Amlo’s controversial judicial reform has been one of the key drivers of the weakness in the peso and we think there’s still some downside risk to the currency, especially if...

13th September 2024 · 7 mins read

China Economics Update

The differences for China in Harris versus Trump

A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty to US-China relations, challenges to a global economic order that has helped China prosper, higher tariffs (probably) on Chinese goods, and...

12th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico’s constitutional reforms: Amlo’s parting shot?

The approval by Mexico's Senate to a sweeping judicial reform has removed the last big obstacle to outgoing President López Obrador’s controversial plan to overhaul the justice system. In light of...

11th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Commodities Update

Is gold priced for perfection?

With a long and varied list of supportive drivers to choose from, we have raised our end-2025 gold price forecast to $2,750 per oz. But even though we now forecast gold prices to end next year about...

10th September 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Update

New US export controls will be harder to overcome

The new US controls on exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment will slow China’s ability to expand its advanced chip-making capacity. While the immediate economic impact will be small, it...

9th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Draghi & Letta proposals are no silver bullet

In principle, an increase in EU integration and cooperation, as proposed by Enrico Letta in April and Mario Draghi today, could increase output in the long run. But any progress will be slow, and the...

9th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Mr Brexit and France’s €16bn fiscal hole

France’s new prime minister, Michel Barnier, will have his work cut out trying to pass a budget that will bring the deficit down to levels acceptable to the European Commission. Meanwhile, the latest...

6th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA GDP and surveys, FOCAC concludes

The slump in the South African manufacturing PMI provided some worrying signs that the rebound seen in the Q2 GDP figures didn’t last. But the PMI appears to be an outlier; other survey data paint a...

6th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Turkey’s optimistic projections, Glapinski’s guidance

Turkey’s medium-term economic programme unveiled this week showed that the government remains committed to the orthodox policy shift. But its projections for a “goldilocks” scenario in which the...

6th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

OPEC+ to face stick or twist moment at next meeting The recent slide in oil prices, to a 14-month low of $73pb at the time of writing, makes the looming OPEC+ decision on whether to unwind its...

5th September 2024 · 1 min read

Global Economics Update

Risks to the global economy: your questions answered

We held online Drop-In sessions earlier this week to discuss the outlook for major DM and EM economies and the risks that they face as we look forward to 2025. (See a recording here.) This Update...

5th September 2024 · 8 mins read

Africa Economics Update

FOCAC: Africa-China relations in a fracturing world

Attention at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation that started today in Beijing will be on the extent to which China can stave off competition from the US to strengthen ties with the region...

4th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany State Elections

The big rise in populist parties in elections in two East German states at the weekend doesn’t threaten the survival of the governing coalition but it points to some political challenges in Germany...

2nd September 2024 · 3 mins read