Global Markets Update Spanish government bonds to weather political uncertainty The better-than-expected showing from Podemos in Sunday’s general election looks likely to usher in a period of political uncertainty in Spain, which could lead to an anti-austerity government in the... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Dec.) The fall in small business confidence in December partly reflects seasonal patterns. Nonetheless, it confirms earlier signs from the manufacturing PMI that economic momentum has slowed somewhat... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish election deals another blow to austerity The inconclusive result of the Spanish general election is set to trigger a period of political uncertainty which could slow the country’s economic recovery. But it also represents another blow to the... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 2016: Surviving rate rises and an EU referendum After a slight wobble in the autumn, the UK economy seems to be ending 2015 on a more positive note. Growth this year is on course to have been about 2.4%. While weaker than 2014’s 2.9% growth rate... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Corruption revelations could signal improved oversight Widespread corruption has long impeded economic growth in Kenya. But while a recent wave of scandals has demoralised some, we believe that the frequent revelation of government malfeasance is a... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the election threaten Spain’s recovery? The likely advent of a coalition government after this Sunday’s Spanish general election looks unlikely to bring the country’s robust economic recovery to a halt. But a period of political instability... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The official UK retail sales figures painted a far more upbeat picture of high streetspending in the early run-up to Christmas than the anecdotal and survey evidence. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s small fall in the headline German Ifo index left it still at a high level. But the sharper decline in the current conditions component supported evidence from recent hard data that growth... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) December’s small fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI left it still pointing to steady but modest growth in the region. But the Paris attacks have taken a toll on France, leaving the economy close to... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Exemptions for food won’t dampen blow from sales tax hike The decision to exempt food from the sales tax hike due in 2017 will not make much difference to theblow it causes to economic momentum. It may however make an early election more likely. 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) While the headline manufacturing PMI was little changed in December, the moderation in the output component suggests that the recovery has lost some momentum. 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Dec.) December’s solid rise in German ZEW investor expectations suggests that the economy is faring pretty well, but it still points to a slight slowdown in growth. 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Economics takes a back seat to politics The past month in Latin America has seen economics take a back seat to politics. The good news has come from Argentina, where the inauguration of Mauricio Macri as president has buoyed both hopes for... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) The upside surprise in today’s Tankan survey will support the Bank of Japan’s upbeat view on the economy and suggests that policymakers will leave the pace of asset purchases unchanged at least until... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Government eyes nursing to revive growth One of the government’s latest measures to promote growth is a proposal to increase the number of nursing home beds so that fewer workers quit their jobs to take care of family members. The plan could... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: a reform checklist Mauricio Macri will be sworn in as president of Argentina today against a backdrop of lofty expectations in financial markets for policy change. The lesson from other EMs is that big reforms tend to... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
