Asia Economics Focus Life in the slow lane for Asia’s Tiger economies With productivity slowing and working age populations set to fall sharply, economic growth in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and Korea is likely to average little more than 2% over the coming years... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Investment would bear the immediate brunt of a Brexit While we think the UK will do well either inside or outside the EU in the long run , there is potential for a short-term hit to investment in particular. But we don’t think that this would derail the... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress Official statements at the National People’s Congress have signalled, as expected, that the immediate economic priority is to support growth including with a looser fiscal stance and more monetary... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slovakia: hung parliament unlikely to dampen near-term growth The divided result in Slovakia’s parliamentary election raises the prospect of a period of political uncertainty and, quite possibly, the need for a second election. However, we don’t think this will... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Take referendum propaganda with a pinch of salt Capital Economics does not have a strong axe to grind either way on the EU question. But we do feel that many of the arguments put forward on both sides are exaggerated – including those from the... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Law and Justice’s first few months in power Poland’s Law and Justice Party has had a whirlwind first few months in power and, in this Watch, we look at the policies introduced so far. The short point is that fiscal measures have been more or... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Does sterling have further to fall? The possibility of the UK leaving the EU appears to have had a substantial effect on the value of sterling against the US dollar. Indeed, we think cable would have stayed close to $1.50 had fears of a... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to watch at the National People’s Congress China’s annual National People’s Congress starts on Saturday. Among the headline announcements are likely to be GDP growth targets for this year and beyond that are unrealistically high and will do... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Finance ministry’s revenue assumptions look too optimistic Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s budget on Monday was well received, with targets for further reductions in the deficit left unchanged and projected spending in key areas ramped up. But the plans are... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Short-term costs of a Brexit wouldn’t derail recovery Although we think that the UK will do well in the long run whether inside or outside of the EU, there is clearly potential for a disruptive short-term impact from the uncertainty that would be seen... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iranian elections a positive step, but reasons to be cautious Recent elections in Iran have provided a positive endorsement of President Rouhani’s reformist policies ahead of next year’s presidential vote and should ease fears that Tehran will renege on its... 1st March 2016 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Could savings on EU contributions boost the economy? One of the advantages of a vote to leave the EU would be the savings the UK could potentially make on its EU contributions. This money could in theory be used to give a boost to the economy, but there... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Expenditure (Q4) Today’s capital spending figures suggest that investment spending was a touch weaker last quarter than initially estimated, but revised GDP data due on Monday should confirm that output shrank by 0.4%... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much should the rest of the world fear ‘Brexit’? The G20 was probably right to include UK exit from the European Union on its list of potential risks to the global recovery, especially given the precedent of the euro-zone crisis in 2011-12. However... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) The rebound in industrial production in January is unlikely to assuage concerns about the health of Japan’s economy as firms are predicting a renewed slump in February. 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sterling’s fall is nothing to fear Brexit unsurprisingly dominated the news again last week, especially its continued downward impact on sterling. As the referendum nears, we expect to see further falls in the pound. However, this... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
