Europe Economics Update Should we worry about the Irish election? Given the political turbulence after recent elections in Spain and Portugal, there are some concerns about the potential outcome of the Irish election, now scheduled for just three weeks’ time. But... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update EU draft deal leaves Brexit in the balance Today’s publication of a draft deal on the UK’s EU negotiations is another step towards a referendum as soon as June. The modest proposed reforms will probably leave the vote very close. If the UK did... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is France in a state of economic emergency? President François Hollande’s declaration in a speech earlier this month that France is in a “state of economic emergency” was hardly reassuring. But, if it’s even possible, we would actually argue... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why are Japanese firms struggling in China? The fact that Japanese firms have fared much worse in China than their competitors since the yen started weakening in 2012 suggests that their competitiveness has waned. However, firms have at least... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The 5.1% m/m decline in durable goods was due primarily to a sharp decline in the notoriously volatile aircraft component. Nevertheless, the details suggest that equipment investment shrank in the... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jan.) January’s EC consumer and business survey supported the message from other survey indicators that the euro-zone’s economy slowed at the start of the year. 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Key challenges await Vietnam’s new leadership Vietnam’s new top leadership team, which has just been unveiled, takes the reins at a key moment for the economy. Although short-term prospects remain good, further reforms are needed for the economy... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jan.) The drop in small business confidence in January partly reflects seasonal patterns, and the bigger picture is that firms remain fairly upbeat. 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jan. & Q1) The CBI Industrial Trends Survey for January and Q1 showed that manufacturing didn’t leave its troubles behind in 2015. But the sector’s prospects do appear a little brighter. 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM debt: recapping the risks The dangers posed by a rapid build-up in EM debt have come back into the spotlight in recent weeks. In this Focus we revisit the lessons from history. Three points stand out – with potentially ominous... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rate rise this year still quite possible At the end of another tumultuous week in global financial markets, one of the most notable developments in the UK has been the further drop in interest rate expectations. But even after the shaky... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Wet weather doesn’t dampen outlook for spending The official UK retail sales figures once again painted a different picture of high-street spending to anecdotal and survey evidence – this time indicating a far weaker month for retail sales in... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances & Retail Sales (Dec.) While the latest figures brought some better news on the public finances, the Chancellor still looks likely to overshoot his target this year. Meanwhile, despite the sharp fall in retail sales in... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Limited boost to corporate profits from cheaper oil Corporate profits have not risen much in response to lower prices of energy and other raw materials, as the gains have been highly concentrated in a few sectors. Looking ahead, the recent appreciation... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The manufacturing PMI remained strong in January and suggests that economy activity continued to recover at a solid pace. 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Lower privatisation targets would boost credibility With only two months of this fiscal year remaining, the finance ministry’s aim of raising nearly INR700bn in revenues through the privatisation of various state-owned companies looks impossible to... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
