Africa Economics Focus Africa: Solid growth, no economic transformation Hopes that African economies will repeat the economic miracles seen in Asia are, for the most part, misplaced. Rapid population growth will deliver reasonable rates of headline GDP growth, but... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the slowdown in capital outflows from Russia? Capital outflows from Russia have slowed markedly in recent quarters and the nature of these outflows has changed too – they are now driven by Russian companies repaying their external debts, rather... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The renewed fall in the manufacturing PMI to a three year-low in March underlines that the recent strengthening of the exchange rate is dampening activity in the sector. 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Macri makes big strides in first 100 days but work still to do President Mauricio Macri’s first 100 days in office have seen an impressive range of measures to put Argentina’s fragile balance of payments position on a more sustainable footing. By any reasonable... 21st March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update The risk to the UK housing market isn’t Brexit An out vote in June’s EU referendum could lead to some short-term softening in activity levels and price pressures in the housing market. It could also present another medium-term headwind to raising... 21st March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will Osborne’s big squeeze really happen? Large parts of the Budget were clearly aimed solely at repairing the damage that the OBR’s new economic forecasts did to the Chancellor’s chances of meeting his fiscal target. That said, there is... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak start to spring wage negotiations The early results of the Shunto spring wage negotiations have been disappointing to policymakers hoping to see faster wage gains. The major carmakers and electronics firms have agreed smaller base pay... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Investment activity showing tentative signs of improvement The government’s plans to boost capital expenditure should help sustain the recent tentative pick-up in investment activity. But slow movement on the reform front means that a spectacular rebound is... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update NPC puts short-run growth ahead of reform The National People’s Congress has ended today leaving us still feeling confident in our relatively upbeat view of the immediate outlook for the economy. But the leadership’s continued tentative... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should UK retailers fear a Brexit? The possibility of a Brexit has raised a number of worries for British retailers, including the prospect of falling consumer demand and rising imported goods costs. But while the short-term impact of... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jan.) Today’s data on machinery orders suggest that capital spending will continue to expand this quarter. While a near-term slowdown is likely, we expect the recovery in capital expenditure to resume... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch referendum on Ukraine another threat to the EU While a ‘no’ vote in the upcoming Dutch referendum on the European Union’s Association Agreement with Ukraine might have few direct effects, such an outcome would illustrate the Dutch population’s... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) Corporate bond yields have collapsed since the Bank of Japan adopted negative interest rates. However, with bonds only accounting for a quarter of corporate debt, bank lending rates would also have to... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia holds rate, but all eyes on BNM governor succession Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) today kept its policy rate on hold at 3.25% at a monetary policy meeting that will be Governor Zeti’s last after 16 years at the helm. We continue to think rates will be... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Feb.) After a surprisingly-strong start to the year, February’s BRC sales figures showed retail sales growth moderating. With temporary supports set to fade, 2016 looks likely to be a solid, rather than... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Storm clouds gather over Lebanon Recent announcements by the Gulf countries that they will cut off financial support to Lebanon and slap a travel ban on the country are likely to have a larger political than economic impact. But if... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
