Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Feb.) February’s EC consumer and business survey supported the message from other survey indicators that the euro-zone’s economy is slowing. 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Feb.) February’s consumer confidence figures show that consumers are becoming increasingly concerned about general economic uncertainty. However, they remain upbeat by past standards, and this should help... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Land laws to remain an economic constraint With markets and commentators focused on what will be unveiled in the FY16/17 budget on Monday, prospects for the rest of the current session of parliament have slipped under the radar. One of the... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Philippines presidential election: runners and riders Political campaigning in the Philippines ahead of presidential elections due on 9 th May is now well underway. Grace Poe, an independent candidate and adopted daughter of Fernando Poe, a defeated... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Political limbo poses growing risk to Spain The latest deal between two Spanish political parties does not guarantee the formation of a government and new elections may take place before long. While the economy has weathered the uncertainty... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What can, or should, the G20 do? Calls for co-ordinated policy easing ahead of this weekend’s G20 meeting will almost certainly cometo nothing. However, officials should at least seek to reassure investors that the world is not on... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How big is the Brexit premium? We estimate that sterling would rebound from $1.39 to $1.50 against the dollar if the UK voted today to remain a member of the EU. But if a similar move occurs in response to a vote to stay in the... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling to fall further – but that’s not necessarily a bad thing Sterling remains the main casualty of Brexit uncertainty and we expect the pound to fall further as the referendum nears. However, this should not be viewed as an entirely negative development, as the... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update EU deal soon should pave way for a Brexit referendum in June The deal which looks likely to be sewn up at this week’s EU Council meeting should pave the way for David Cameron to announce a date for the EU referendum soon and officially launch his campaign to... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Banking sector fears overdone One of the main areas of concern in markets in recent weeks has been the banking sector, both in the UK and overseas. However, we do not think that this pessimism about the UK’s banking sector is... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What measures are needed to revive the banking sector? Comments last week from RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan that local banks are in need of "deep surgery" has refocused attention on the ailing sector. Large-scale capital injections, increased private... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would Brexit affect the rest of the EU? We have argued that both the potential costs and benefits to the UK of leaving the EU would be small over the medium term. But this is not a zero-sum game and while we doubt that Brexit would have any... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Political risk adds to economic headwinds A legal case against President Jacob Zuma may further destabilise South Africa’s already febrile political situation. Increased political risk poses a very real threat to the country’s struggling... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jan.) Following a fairly disappointing Christmas period, January’s BRC sales figures suggested that consumers started the year on a strong footing. But with temporary props set to fade, spending growth in... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly EU referendum will delay rate hike, but not until 2018 The draft EU deal published last week has left the “Brexit” referendum looking likely to occur in June this year. What’s more, on the basis of the latest polls, it looks set to be a close vote. That... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Government bonds – is Japan the next Switzerland? The 10-year Japanese government bond yield has fallen to a record low of less than 0.1% following the Bank of Japan’s decision to cut its deposit rate to -0.1%. We now forecast that the 10-year JGB... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
