Africa Economics Update South Africa: Finance minister’s sacking will spook investors The surprise removal of Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene is a very worrying development. Mr. Nene was a rare advocate of fiscal discipline, and his sacking adds to a string of increasingly autocratic... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key calls for EMs in 2016 The EM world looks to have grown by its weakest pace since the global financial crisis in 2015, but things should start to improve next year. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we think... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Have the Conservatives turned into Labour? The Autumn Statement took the Conservatives’ planned path for departmental spending another stepcloser to Labour’s manifesto plans. Admittedly, the overall fiscal consolidation this parliament is set... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela opposition supermajority confirmed, Maduro out? Venezuela’s electoral council has finally conceded that the opposition won a two-thirds supermajority in Sunday’s legislative elections and this is certainly a game changer. It will give the... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) After a torrid year so far, October’s industrial production figures suggest that theUK manufacturing sector should end the year in better shape. 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Nov.) The growing prevalence of Black Friday failed to provide much of a boost to retail sales in November. It appears sales were just shifted from the start to the end of November to take advantage of... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Nov.) Today’s Economy Watchers Survey dropped back even allowing for seasonal distortions, and once again points to stagnant industrial activity. 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update France to suffer in the long term from Front National’s win The unprecedented success of France’s far-right Front National (FN) in Sunday’s regional elections is a symbolic victory for the party’s protectionist and anti-immigration policies. While the initial... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela election: Opposition wins, but no big policy shift likely Venezuela’s opposition comfortably won yesterday’s legislative elections, although with 22 seats still to be declared, the size of the victory (and therefore the impact on policymaking) still hangs in... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela elections: turning point or tipping point? Venezuela’s opposition looks set to triumph in legislative elections on Sunday but, unlike last month’s election upset in Argentina, this won’t trigger a shift towards more orthodox policymaking. If... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Drag on growth from anti-graft measures easing Three years on, there is no sign that China’s anti-corruption campaign is being eased, but its drag on economic growth is fading. 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Expenditure (Q3) The strong rebound in capital spending excluding software last quarter suggests that GDP may have been flat last quarter instead of shrinking slightly as initially estimated. 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Russia’s sanctions on Turkey The economic impact of the Russian sanctions on Turkey announced this weekend will, in general, probably be limited. Our best estimate of the maximum losses to the Turkish economy is around 0.5% of... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Nov.) November’s EC consumer and business survey supported the message from other survey indicators released earlier this week that after Q3’s slowdown the eurozone’s economic recovery may have regained... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update New bankruptcy code would be a big step forward Plans to overhaul India’s archaic bankruptcy laws, due to be discussed in the upcoming winter session of parliament, would be a major step towards creating a more favourable business climate and... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Autumn Statement 2015: Osborne targets BTL again With little additional detail on business rates, and the Starter Homes Initiative simply a restatement of a policy announced last year, Help to Buy London and the Chancellor’s latest assault on BTL... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
