Europe Economics Weekly ECB QE expansion now more likely than ever ECB President Mario Draghi surprised many with his very dovish comments at the press conference that followed last week’s ECB Governing Council meeting. But he remained coy about what tools the Bank... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Both pros and cons of leaving EU often overstated Although he said that it would be “a bit of a yawner”, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s speech on the UK’s membership of the EU contained something for both the pro- and anti-Europe camps to... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Upcoming elections key to outlook for several FMs Four frontier markets are due to hold national elections in the coming month. The most high-profile election is in Argentina where Daniel Scioli, the candidate of the ruling left-wing coalition... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB all but promises more support in December While the European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged today, President Draghi gave even stronger-than-anticipated signals that the QE programme will be expanded in December. 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) Following a feeble performance in previous months, the renewed vigour in the pace of UK retail spending in September might help to stop overall GDP growth slowing too much in Q3. 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What should we expect from China’s new Five-Year Plan? China’s leadership is likely to use its forthcoming Five-Year Plan to signal that it is not wavering on the need for structural reform. In fact, progress over the first three years of President Xi's... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP facing tough battle in Bihar Prime Minister Modi and the BJP face an uphill battle in their attempts to win the ongoing election in the state of Bihar. From an economic perspective, the Bihar vote is important for two key reasons... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Liberal fiscal plan may lift growth modestly The Liberal party’s surprise majority Federal election victory has been shrugged off by financial markets, which is a good thing considering the already uncertain economic outlook. The Liberals pledge... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swiss election doesn’t change gloomy economic outlook The shift to the right in yesterday’s Swiss election will mean continued resistance to immigration and perhaps more business-friendly policies. But exchange rate developments are more important for... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Finance Minister Aso the Bank of Japan’s new oracle? Finance Minister Aso has been downplaying the chances of further monetary stimulus. But given that Japan’s government has previously argued that “surprise” is a key element of effective monetary... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss election doesn’t change gloomy economic outlook The shift to the right in yesterday’s Swiss election will mean continued resistance to immigration and perhaps more business-friendly policies. But exchange rate developments are more important for... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would a Scioli presidency mean for Argentina? Daniel Scioli, the candidate of Argentina’s left-wing ruling coalition, seems on course to win the presidential election in the first round on 25th October. His plans for the economy have been... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Should we fear a shift to populism in Poland? Rising support for the opposition Law and Justice party ahead of Poland’s parliamentary election on 25th October has raised concerns about a move towards more populist policymaking. We think that any... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Capital spending to remain sluggish A range of indicators suggest that business investment dropped for the second straight quarter in Q3. However, the Bank of Japan is continuing to argue that the outlook for capital expenditure is... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Official GDP data set to remain political tool We shouldn’t expect China to have a statistical system as robust as those in the developed world. But the problems in China go beyond those normally found in an emerging economy. The biggest is that... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Key reform vote not Greece's last major challenge The Greek parliament looks set to pass the next set of reforms needed to unlock further bailout funds and potentially open the door to a debt restructuring. But with yet more reforms needed, the... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
