Japan Economics Update New “arrows” don’t change the outlook for Japan’s economy Prime Minister Abe’s announcement of new targets does not alter the outlook for the economy. In the absence of tangible policies to boost productivity and stem the decline in the working-age... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit & the City: Long-run benefits may justify upfront cost A British exit from the EU would probably hurt the City in the short term, but it would not spelldisaster. The City’s competitive advantage is founded on more than just unfettered access to thesingle... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Alarm bells sound in key economies Worries about slowing growth in China and tightening monetary policy in America have dented some of the optimism surrounding African economies. But the consensus is still far too bullish about the... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Catalan cloud could rain on Spain This weekend’s regional election could put Catalonia on a course towards secession, casting a cloudover Spain’s recovery and galvanising other independent-minded regions of the euro-zone 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) August’s public borrowing figures brought the recent run of good news on the public finances to an abrupt end. That said, hopefully this will just be a temporary blip, as tax receipts should be... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would the public finances be better off after a Brexit? The UK Government could save about £10bn per year on its contributions to the EU’s budget if it left the EU. But a Brexit would not need to create much economic disruption to offset these savings... 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Election result does not address Greece’s biggest challenge While the result of Greece’s election strengthens the Syriza-led government’s mandate to implement the country’s third bailout, the major challenge for both Greece and its creditors – to find a... 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would a Brexit cause foreign direct investment to dry up? Whilst a British exit from the EU may cause the UK to lose out on some foreign direct investment (FDI), access to the single market is not the only reason that firms invest in the UK. Accordingly, we... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Signs of improvement in Indonesia After a disappointing first ten months to Joko Widodo’s presidency, there are encouraging signs that policymaking in Indonesia is finally starting to improve. However, we will need to see further... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a Syriza defeat kill the anti-austerity movement? Suggestions that a defeat for the Syriza party in this weekend’s Greek election would kill off the eurozone’s anti-austerity movement are over the top. But there is little prospect of Germany and the... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Brexit wouldn't spell disaster for UK exports Over the next few weeks, we will be publishing a series of pieces of work looking at the impact that leaving the EU would have on the UK economy, culminating in a presentation at our annual conference... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Run-up to Bihar election a bellwether for reform appetite India’s increasingly decentralised system means that state elections such as the upcoming vote in Bihar have a bearing on economic policy. Perhaps more significant, the need to campaign at the local... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update SOE reform plan falls short China’s latest proposals to shake-up state-owned industry are underwhelming. We expect the economy to continue growing at decent rates over the years ahead, but believe this will happen in spite of... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are concerns about the National Living Wage overdone? Concerns have been mounting about the impact of the introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) in April next year, with companies such as Next and Whitbread warning that they will have to put up... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Election won’t end the Greek crisis Whichever party wins this Sunday’s Greek election is likely to stick broadly to the conditions of the new bailout in the near term. But even an austerity-minded government will struggle to meet future... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q2) Data released this morning showed that South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed to 3.1% of GDP in Q2. While this is welcome news, a more detailed look at the figures highlight the economy’s... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
