UK Economics Weekly UK should weather rising US interest rates well Even if the US Fed holds fire this week, US interest rates will be rising soon – and, in our view, quicker than markets expect. Turning points in UK monetary policy are often close to US ones. But... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s unemployment puzzle With the Russian economy in a deep recession, the fact that the unemployment rate has remained at historic lows is puzzling. As we explain in this Watch, one explanation may be that large firms –... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Odds of a September rate hike are 50-50 The odds of the Fed hiking interest rates at next week’s FOMC meeting, which concludes on Thursday, are close to 50-50. The cumulative improvement in the economy over the past few years means that it... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GST deadline unlikely to be met The long-awaited implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in India could bring significant benefits to the economy. But a decade after it was first proposed, there are still a number of... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Aug.) On the face of it, August’s weak BRC Retail Sales Monitor may add to concerns that the economy has lost a bit of steam in the third quarter. However, the underlying picture is not as weak as it looks... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we worry about “Corbynomics”? If the polls are anything to go by, left-leaning Jeremy Corbyn will be elected as the next leader of the Labour Party on 12 th of September. This has prompted a heated debate over his economic... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Major challenges await Singapore after the election Singapore is holding a general election on 11th September and there is little doubt that the People’s Action Party (PAP) will once again be returned to power. Nevertheless, the PAP will want to... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Expenditure (Q2)-2015 The Ministry of Finance’s survey on corporate finances suggests that the economy shrank by even more last quarter than initially estimated. 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The drop in industrial production in July suggests that economic activity will recover only slowly this quarter. 31st August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The very strong reading of the GfK consumer confidence survey in August provides reassurance that recent softer growth in retail sales is likely to be just temporary. 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Can India capitalise on its demographic dividend? The UN’s projection that India will become the world’s most populous nation as soon as 2022 has refocused attention on the country’s remarkable demographic potential and the impact this could have on... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Structural issues, not oil prices, drag down growth Yesterday’s Nigerian GDP figures showed that the country’s economy slowed even more sharply than weexpected in the second quarter. While low oil prices have battered the economy, the recent figures... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will policymakers respond to the market rout? China’s interest rate cut has helped to stem the panic that has gripped emerging markets in recent days, but it has also raised the obvious question about whether other EMs may follow suit. We doubt... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update 1MDB scandal highlights problems that hold Malaysia back The scandal over 1MDB is not the biggest threat to Malaysia’s short-term economic outlook or the main cause of the recent collapse in the ringgit. However, it does shine a light on institutional... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Equity price falls don’t materially alter economic outlook While we remain more concerned than most about the Australian economy, we don’t think that the recent sharp falls in equity prices will filter through into much weaker investment or consumption. 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Plunge in oil prices will force BoJ to step up easing Further falls in crude oil prices are making it even harder for the Bank of Japan to hit its inflation target. Despite some sanguine comments from Prime Minister Abe today, we think these price falls... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
