Global Central Bank Watch How will the UK referendum affect global monetary policy? A vote by the UK to leave the European Union would come as a major surprise and could trigger significant market turmoil. This would probably lead to the Bank of England keeping monetary policy looser... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Can UK equities weather a Brexit? We don’t think that a vote to leave the EU would have a very significant negative impact on the FTSE 100, although the effect on UK indices of smaller firms might be more pronounced. Further ahead, a... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (May) May’s rise in the German Ifo suggests that the economy has continued to grow at pretty healthy rates, but the fast quarterly pace seen in Q1 will not be sustained. 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The implications of a vote to stay in the EU If the UK votes to stay in the EU, we expect a kneejerk strengthening in financial markets, although any rise in the pound might be short-lived. The economic recovery would quickly get back on track... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil fiscal package: lofty rhetoric, but implementation a risk Brazil’s Finance Minister, Henrique Meirelles, has unveiled the first part of his planned fiscal adjustment. Our initial take is that the plans are lofty in ambition, but so far lacking in detail... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is Europe heading back into crisis? With the recovery in the euro-zone economy set to slow and the peripheral countries still facing a Herculean task to address their fiscal problems, there is a danger that Europe’s debt crisis will... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Austrian result offers only brief respite from far-right’s rise The election of pro-immigration and -EU Alexander Van der Bellen as Austria’s next president keeps the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) out of office for now. But the FPÖ remain the top party in general... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Manufacturing PMI points to sharp slowdown in Q2 The fifth straight drop in the manufacturing PMI in May suggests that economic momentum slowed sharply in the second quarter. 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Treasury’s Brexit recession warning seems overdone We think the Treasury (HMT) report, published today, suggesting that the UK will go into recession if it leaves the EU goes a bit far. Existing trading relationships will remain in place over the two... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would Brexit really be a game-changer for global markets? The trends in the opinion polls and in bookmakers’ odds suggest that a UK vote to leave the EU (“ Brexit ”) would now be a major surprise. Given this, the initial uncertainty caused by Brexit would... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would Brexit mean for Eastern Europe? With one month to go to the UK’s referendum on whether to remain in or leave the EU, concerns are growing in some quarters that a “Brexit” vote could harm Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). As things... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Remain poll surge eases markets’ Brexit jitters This week saw the campaign to remain in the EU surge ahead in opinion polls, helping to ease investors’ Brexit worries. Meanwhile, strong retail sales data suggest that consumers haven’t been as badly... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How long can pensioners keep spending? Population ageing has weighed on the average employee’s disposable income as social security contributions have risen by nearly 50% over the past fifteen years, and will continue rising in future... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Consumers shrug off Brexit uncertainty The consumer recovery appears to have got back on track, at least as far as the official retail sales figures indicate. Indeed, consumer confidence still seems to be holding up well despite the... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier market governments push for reform Low commodity prices, slower growth and a string of elections have prompted a move towards reform in a handful of frontier market economies in recent months. But while these governments have made... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: policy tightening underway, but work still to do Argentina’s long-overdue policy tightening – needed to address the country’s entrenched inflation problem – is finally underway, but with the fiscal deficit still large and inflation in excess of 40%... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
