Europe Economics Weekly Nai or Oxi? Sunday’s Greek referendum result looks likely to be very close. But regardless of whether the outcome is Nai or Oxi, unless any resulting deal includes a substantial form of debt relief, the crisis... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece has room to grow outside the euro The large degree of spare capacity in the Greek economy suggests that it could perform well if the constraints of fiscal austerity and a strong currency were removed via a euro-zone exit. But Greece’s... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Bubbles, basket cases and rising stars The economic outlook for Emerging Asia over the next few years varies considerably from one country to the next. Years of loose monetary policy in the region’s wealthy economies have led to the... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Reforms will help Italian banks crawl back to health Recent reforms will help Italy’s fragile banking system. But a legacy of bad debts and the earlier tightening of lending standards will weigh on the country’s recovery for a while yet. 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2015 Preview The Budget on 8th July will be all about providing the details of the second stage of austerity and hopes have been building that Mr Osborne will smooth the profile of the spending cuts. But the... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Tsipras blinks, but Grexit risks are still high The expiry of Greece’s second bailout programme and its “default” to the IMF have raised the crisis to a new level. With latest polls suggesting that a majority of voters will vote to reject the... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update “Grexit” alone unlikely to deter the Fed from raising rates The Fed would, of course, be reluctant to hike rates for the first time since 2006 in the midst of another global financial crisis triggered by Greek exit from the euro. However, we do not expect... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) While the Tankan rose last quarter, a range of activity data point to a contraction in GDP in Q2. 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Even a Yes vote might not prevent a Grexit A Yes vote in Sunday’s Greek referendum, if it goes ahead, will not guarantee the country’s futureinside the euro-zone. Not only is it unclear just what deal such an outcome would lead to, but... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How much of a boost would a Grexit provide to US Treasuries? The Greek authorities’ decision to call a referendum on the proposals of the country’s creditors triggered a decline of around 20bp in the yield of 10-year Treasuries, which has since been only partly... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Will the monsoon session of parliament be another washout? The monsoon session of parliament, due to begin in mid-July, has taken on extra significance given that the government's reform agenda has recently run into roadblocks. Top of the list of priorities... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The global fallout of “Grexit” (revisited) If, as seems increasingly likely, Greece defaults and exits the euro-zone within the coming months, the implications for the world economy should be fairly modest. Indeed, it could even turn out to be... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will markets remain this calm if and when Grexit occurs? Although some of the initial reaction in the markets to the decision by the Greek authorities to hold a referendum has been unwound, there is plenty of scope for renewed volatility in the event of a... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greferendum – key questions & answers The Greek Government’s decision to call a referendum has elevated the crisis to a higher level. Whilea deal may yet come together, a near-term Grexit now seems more likely than not. This... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The final countdown The failure of Greece and its creditors to reach a deal at last week’s many meetings has left very little time before the current bailout expires on Tuesday. Saturday’s Eurogroup meeting looks pretty... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Argentina: runners and riders in the race to replace Cristina With Cristina Kirchner constitutionally barred from running for a third consecutive term as president of Argentina in October’s elections, hopes of a shift towards more market-friendly policymaking... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
