Global Economics Update Monetary conditions loose despite rise in yields Although both sovereign and corporate bond yields in advanced economies rose in early May, they remain low by past standards. And with most central banks likely to maintain ultra-loose policy this... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) The latest euro-zone fiscal data showed that most of the peripheral countries made fiscal progress at the start of Q2, after a mixed performance in Q1. But Greece’s position is still looking... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal unlikely to tackle debt mountain Last night’s meeting between Greece’s creditors may have been an important step towards reaching a proposal to release the country’s final bailout payment. But the risk of failure is still high and... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s election: potential outcomes and market implications Fears ahead of Turkey’s parliamentary election on 7th June have centred on the risk of a dominant and increasingly authoritarian AK Party under President Erdogan , but in another twist to the plot the... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Dollar strength weighs on commodities (again) Commodity prices mostly fell in the past week, dragged lower by renewed strength in the US currency. Leading the falls, natural gas prices reversed their weather-related gains from earlier in the... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong growth won’t halt rise in Spain’s debt ratio Spain’s economy continues to go from strength to strength and could well grow by more than 3% this year. But with the large amount of spare capacity set to keep inflation negative or low, and growing... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: how to judge a Buhari presidency The inauguration of President Muhammadu Buhari this morning was met with widespread optimism in Nigeria, but the 72-year old must act quickly if he is to retain the political momentum and make serious... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Are policymakers pushing on a string? The failure of policy loosening over the past six months to stimulate an economic rebound has led some to suggest that elevated real interest rates or oppressive debt burdens are hobbling corporate... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Apr.) With economic activity sluggish and price pressures subdued despite a tighter labour market, we remain convinced that the Bank of Japan will have to step up the pace of easing before too long. 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (May) The European Commission’s monthly Business and Consumer survey for May offered some assurance that the modest euro-zone recovery has continued despite the ongoing Greek crisis. 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is the ECB to a Greek default? The ECB’s exposure to Greece is not huge and ultimately lies with the euro-zone governments that would have to recapitalise it. But a Greek default to the ECB would be a serious blow to the Bank’s... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Has Modi already missed his best opportunity? Prime Minister Modi’s first year in office was a mixed bag. The pace of economic reform will need to be stepped up in his second year to justify the investor enthusiasm that greeted his election... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Butter meltdown highlights policy failures Japan’s butter shortage is the result of agricultural policy failures. It should strengthen the argument that agreement to scale back protectionist measures in the ongoing talks on the Trans-Pacific... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The UK economy after the election While the Conservatives’ victory removed some of the uncertainty hanging over the economy, it has some more worrying implications – such as the renewed fiscal squeeze and the EU referendum. But we... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has the ECB saved the euro-zone again? After saving the day with its pledge to “do whatever it takes” in 2012, the ECB has arguably now brought on a recovery with its quantitative easing programme. But we expect the policy’s effects to... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Africa will struggle to capitalise on youthful demographics Sub-Saharan Africa’s youthful demographic profile is often cited as a potential engine of economic development, but we believe that this argument significantly overstates the economic benefits of... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
