Africa Chart Pack Nigeria’s election does not end economic woes Nigeria’s 29th March election was a political triumph; the largely peaceful vote resulted in the country’s first-ever democratic transfer of power between presidents from different political parties... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) April’s rise in the Ifo German Business Climate Indicator (BCI) suggests that economic conditions are holding up despite the Greek crisis and comes as a relief after falls in the ZEW and PMI surveys. 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Does the economy struggle when governments are weak? GDP growth has been weak during the term of several governments which had only small majorities. But we would not conclude from this that the fragile government that this general election may yield... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Confidence not dented by election uncertainty With two weeks until May’s general election, the polls still show that no party is likely to win an overall majority and the composition of the next government is unclear. Despite this ongoing... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) April’s fall in the euro-zone composite PMI suggested that fears over Greece might already be starting to dampen economic growth in the region, offsetting any boost from loose monetary policy and the... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth sinks as BRICs woes deepen EM growth appears to have sunk to a post-crisis low of around 4% y/y in the first quarter of this year, driven in large part by a deepening downturn in the BRICs. China has grabbed most of the... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets underestimating potential election impact On the whole, the consensus view in the markets still appears to be that the result of the general election will not have major consequences for UK asset prices. If markets had become concerned, then... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Austria’s bank troubles will have euro-zone repercussions The ongoing uncertainty and legal suits over the wind-down of a small Austrian provincial bank might seem like the least of the euro-zone’s current concerns. But the wind-down of Hypo Alpe Adria’s bad... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update EU referendum uncertainty needn’t derail the recovery The deal which looks likely to be sewn up at this week’s EU Council meeting should pave the way for David Cameron to announce a date for the EU referendum soon and officially launch his campaign to... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Election set to have bigger market impact than previous ones Recent UK general elections have barely affected markets and this one has yet to have a material impact too. Nonetheless, we could still see a big movement in asset prices in this election’s wake. 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Greece default and stay in the euro? Suggestions that Greece can default but remain inside the euro-zone overlook the fact that Greece needs both a very large debt write-down and a more competitive currency. 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Apr.) April’s fall in German ZEW investor sentiment suggests that fears over Greece are starting to dent confidence in the German economic recovery. 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Why isn’t gold doing better despite “Grexit” risks? The price of gold has dipped below $1,200 per ounce again today, prompting some to ask whether a further escalation of the crisis in Greece would provide much support to the precious metal after all... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How has investment fared since the crisis? One of the most disappointing features of advanced economies in recent years has been the weakness of investment. In part, this is because investment tends to mirror the performance of the economy as... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Greek crisis still threatens global markets The latest acts in the Greek tragedy have begun to unsettle financial markets again, although we think there are potentially much bigger moves to come. Indeed, markets still appear to complacent both... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Does the economic outlook hinge on who wins? The fiscal rules proposed by the Conservative and Labour parties in their manifestos last week suggested that the latter could borrow an extra £130bn more than the Tories over the next five years if... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
