Africa Chart Pack Nigerian politics take centre stage All eyes are focused on Nigeria’s election on 28th March, which will almost certainly spark a brief period of political violence when (as seems likely) the losing candidate refuses to accept the... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) March’s rise in the German Ifo index provided further evidence that the recovery in the euro-zone’s largest economy continued in Q1 as firms shrugged off fears over Greece and the weaker euro started... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Nigeria: What to expect after the election Saturday’s election will almost certainly spark a brief period of political violence when (as seems likely) the losing candidate refuses to accept the result. Beyond this, another term for incumbent... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q1 2015 Business sentiment has deteriorated this quarter however there has been a pick-up in reported loan demand, perhaps spurred by recent policy easing. Meanwhile, fewer households believe house prices are... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greece still hanging by a thread While there have been few firm developments in the ongoing Greek crisis in recent weeks, the general news on the progress towards plugging the country’s short-term financing hole and finding a lasting... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Feb.) While the public finances have finally shown significant improvement in recent months, they have not lessened the need for a major re-intensification of the fiscal squeeze soon after the election. 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Policymakers strike sanguine note If there is one key message on the economy to take away from the National People’s Congress it is that the government is aware of downside risks to growth but confident that it has the tools and the... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update France will struggle to meet its new fiscal targets, again While France has been given an extra two years to meet its new budget targets set by Brussels, we think that it will still struggle to achieve the necessary fiscal consolidation given France’s... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Corporate sector boosts its borrowing The $79bn increase in household debt in the fourth quarter was dwarfed by the $211bn increase in non-financial corporate debt. The latter was the biggest increase since 2007. 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Now is the euro low enough? The drop in the euro to a 12-year low against the US dollar should clearly provide some support to both activity and inflation in the euro-zone. But it would be wrong to think that its effects are... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the pound riding for a fall? Sterling remains vulnerable to concerns about a hung parliament, EU exit and the current account deficit. But it is hard to tell when these concerns will bite, if they will at all. And in the meantime... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will Greece & deflation re-ignite the euro-zone crisis? The combination of Greece’s renewed problems and the onset of deflation is a very toxic one for the euro-zone. At best, it is likely to keep economic growth in the region fairly subdued. At worst, it... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Business Outlook Survey (Q1) The reported deterioration in business conditions in today’s Business Outlook Survey partly reflects seasonal factors. Nonetheless, the survey suggests that economic activity will remain sluggish in... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Political crisis now biggest threat to Brazil’s economy The corruption scandal at state-owned oil company, Petrobras, has developed over the past week or so into a full-blown national political crisis that, in our view, is now the biggest headwind facing... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s debt restructuring: five key questions It looks all but inevitable that Ukraine will need to restructure its public debts, but there’s a huge amount of uncertainty about what the restructuring might look like. To shed some light, in this... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Without tighter rules, migration to stay strong We doubt that the recent strength in net migration will be temporary. The recent rise has been primarily driven by increased immigration from Europe, reflecting its weak economy compared to the UK and... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
