China Economics Update Shrinking workforce not a major threat to growth The release of figures showing that China’s working age population continued to fall last year has revived concerns about demographic headwinds to China’s growth. In this China Watch we discuss why... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets still complacent on Greece’s debt challenge Our concerns that the markets have been under-estimating the challenge faced by the new Syriza-led Greek Government and the Troika in trying to reach a mutually acceptable solution to Greece’s debt... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s surprise rate cut a response to political pressures Today’s surprise decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to cut its one-week repo rate by 200bp, to 15.0%, reflects political pressures rather than economic reality. The decision was premised on... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ pinning hopes on strong Shunto wage deal A strong rise in base pay in the spring wage negotiations (Shunto) would help convince the Bank of Japan that the current weakness in inflation will prove temporary. A tight labour market and strong... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Ukrainian default looking inevitable News that Ukraine’s government plans to hold “discussions” with bondholders has been widely interpreted as a precursor to some form of default, and dollar bond yields have jumped accordingly in recent... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jan.) January’s small rise in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) did little to change the picture of very subdued growth in the euro-zone at the start of this year. 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) & anti-crisis measures The key point that stands out in December’s activity data for Russia is the sharp jump in retail sales growth. However, this reflects panic buying as the ruble collapsed at the end of last year. Hence... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Jokowi’s first 100 days: a promising start Indonesia’s new president, Joko Widodo (known as Jokowi) has made an encouraging start to hispresidency. But tougher challenges lie ahead, while a corruption scandal is raising questions about... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update ECB QE to drive European commercial property yields lower still The real impact of the ECB’s new QE programme on GDP growth and occupier demand will initially be stymied by the Greek election results and the ensuing debt re-negotiations. However, investors will be... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are markets too sanguine about contagion from Greece? Despite concerns over Greece’s future within the euro-zone, the yields on government bonds in the rest of peripheral and southern Europe have generally remained low and close to those of Germany. This... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rise of populist parties unlikely to end austerity Syriza’s victory in the Greek general election may increase the influence of anti-austerity parties elsewhere in the euro-zone, most notably Podemos in Spain. But resistance from Germany seems set to... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jan.) The renewed fall in small business confidence this month underlines the fragility of the economic recovery. 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the recovery fizzle out in 2015? While the UK’s economic recovery has shown some signs of flagging recently, we think its best days may still lie ahead. Admittedly, it has depended on some unsustainable sources and the general... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Electricity shortages to stymie South Africa’s recovery There are encouraging signs that South Africa’s power shortages will ease in the medium term. But this year, they are likely to continue to drag on economic growth. 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) January’s rise in the German Ifo index suggests that fears about the effect of the Greek crisis on the German economy have so far been offset by the perceived benefits of a weaker euro and ECB... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Syriza victory threatens to reignite crisis Syriza’s resounding victory in the Greek general election looks set to result in a protracted period of heightened uncertainty over Greece’s future inside the euro-zone and could threaten to reignite... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
