Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s primaries put Scioli in the driving seat With most of the votes in Argentina’s primary elections now counted, it appears that Daniel Scioli, of the ruling left-wing Front for Victory coalition, is on course to win the Presidential elections... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore at 50: facing life after the miracle As Singapore celebrates its 50th anniversary since independence on 9th August, it can look back on a half-century in which it achieved enormous economic success. However, the country goes into its... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly The “Third Arrow” has slowed to a crawl Prime Minister Abe returned to power in late 2012 with the intention to lift average real GDP growth to 2% by implementing policies at “unprecedented speed”. Despite some success incertain areas... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: The dangers of ‘feed bottle federalism’ The slowly-unfolding budgetary crisis affecting Nigeria’s 36 state-level governments poses some risk to the central governmnet’s fiscal health. But, more importantly, it also exemplifies the flaws in... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jul.) Last month’s ‘whole economy’ PMIs provide early signs that activity in the Gulf strengthened at the start of Q3. Elsewhere, although Egypt’s PMI edged down in July, it still points to stronger growth... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Belgium resolving its structural problems? Belgium has started to reform its labour market and improve its competitiveness. But this will take time to bear fruit, and further work will be needed. Accordingly, over the next few years we expect... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
RBI Watch New Financial Code risks damaging RBI independence The draft version of the government’s Financial Code, released last week, could have important implications for the functioning of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The adoption of a voting monetary... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will population ageing help or derail efforts to boost inflation? Other things being equal, population ageing should boost price pressures. But that hasn’t happened in Japan because there has been an offsetting increase in the share of adults willing to work... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jul.) Despite softening a little, July’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey nonetheless remained robust and the big picture is that retail sales volumes still seem to be growing at a fairly healthy rate. 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed won’t spark EM sell-off today, but data may add to volatility We do not expect any fireworks in EM financial markets after today’s FOMC statement, but with policymakers likely to reiterate that the timing of “lift-off” will be data dependent our upbeat view on... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: New Eurobond raises regional debt concerns The high yield demanded for Zambia’s recent Eurobond is not just a sign of that country’s deteriorating fiscal position. Market sentiment towards Sub-Saharan African government debt seems to be... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) July’s rise in German Ifo business sentiment is an encouraging sign that the recovery has continued despite the Greek crisis, although it does not seem to be gaining much pace. 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) Today’s flash manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector returned to growth in the third quarter following a likely drop in output in Q2. 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s gas sector reaches a turning point This week’s announcement that Italian energy group Eni has discovered gas reserves in the Nile Delta provides the first concrete evidence that the Egyptian government’s energy reforms are starting to... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jun.) While June’s public finances brought less encouraging news on the pace of deficit reduction, there is no need for the Chancellor to panic yet. Indeed, robust growth in tax receipts suggests that the... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek elections won’t ensure passage of bailout Even if the planned new Greek bailout is quickly and smoothly implemented, the economy looks set to remain in a deep and prolonged recession. 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
