Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Dec.) While machinery orders soared in December, they were broadly flat over the last quarter, so business investment should have been little changed. Nonetheless, business surveys suggest that the recovery... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: at a turning point or heading deeper into the mire? A programme of government austerity will result in modest improvements to Brazil’s budget and current account deficits over the next year but at the expense of extremely weak growth and, in the near... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs are most at risk from dollar strength? The US dollar’s recent strong run has raised concerns that EMs with large holdings of dollar-denominated debt will come under pressure. Indeed, India’s central bank governor, Raghuram Rajan, has gone... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch Oil glut likely to continue in the first half of 2015 Oversupply in the oil market will probably continue until demand picks up and US oil production growth begins to ease off in the summer. This will limit the upside for prices in the coming months. 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 powerless to contain Greece risk With Greece once more dominating the headlines, officials from the US and elsewhere are likely to have used the G20 meeting in Istanbul to urge euro-zone governments to do all they can to prevent the... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is deflation here to stay this time? The latest bout of deflation in the euro-zone looks set to last rather longer than the brief period of falling prices seen back in 2009. With vast amounts of slack in the economy and inflation... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Delayed elections highlight weak institutions in Nigeria The decision to delay Nigeria’s general election by six weeks has cast the spotlight back onto Nigeria’s weak institutions. While there have been some improvements over the past few years, much more... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jan.) The jump in the outlook component of today’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) suggests that economic activity is picking up speed at the start of the new year. 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Grexit risks rising Several developments last week arguably brought Greece closer to exiting the euro-zone than it has ever been. While the Government appeared to give ground on its demands for debt restructuring, its... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Tougher times ahead after Nigeria’s election Next week’s general election in Nigeria looks likely to be the most closely contested since the country returned to democracy in 1999. The waning in President Goodluck Jonathan’s popularity since he... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Modest recovery continues despite Greek crisis Euro-zone economic activity has continued to recover despite the troubles in Greece. For now, worries about the crisis seem to have been offset by the benefits of a weaker euro and falling producer... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African Eurobond debts manageable, for now The issuance of over USD18bn worth of US dollar denominated debt by Sub-Saharan African (SSA) states has raised concerns about the region’s rising level of indebtedness, but we believe that most of... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth rate set to recover After slowing in the second half of last year, global growth is likely to gather pace again in the coming quarters. Admittedly, the drop in oil prices since last summer has prompted energy companies... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Has the housing boom run its course? We are not forecasting a return to boom conditions in 2015. However, we do think that the outlook for both house prices and housing market activity is rather stronger than is typically believed, as a... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Fiscal and monetary policy after the election CPI inflation looks set to turn negative in the next few months. Whilst we expect the UK’s period of deflation to be short and shallow, there are a number of factors which nonetheless should mean that... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tax on profits held abroad could be worth 1.5% of GDP The funds raised by President Obama’s proposals to tax foreign earnings could, in theory, provide a 1.5% boost to GDP. Despite tax reform being a shared goal of both parties, however, there is no... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
