Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s German Ifo survey provided some comfort that recent overseas events have not yet hit the economy, but remains consistent with only weak rates of expansion. 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lessons from 1998 There are more differences than similarities between the current crisis in Russia and the crisis in 1998, but one point in common is that both have their roots in severe strains in the country’s... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack 2015 shaping up to be another lacklustre year The turmoil in Russia and broader weakness in EM financial markets has brought a subdued end to the year. For 2014 as a whole, the latest data point to aggregate GDP growth of less than 5% for the... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for Russia? Last night’s emergency interest rate hike in Russia has raised more questions that it has provided answers. Part of the renewed pressure on the ruble today stems from oil prices, which have fallen... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (December) The flash manufacturing PMI was broadly unchanged in December and suggests that the sector remains in recovery mode. 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are markets right to be worried about Syriza? The prospect of gaining power has prompted Greece’s anti-bailout party Syriza to soften its stance on some issues. But markets are still right to be worried, given uncertainty around its plans for... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus What should Mr Abe do to kick-start growth? If the right policies were followed, we estimate that Japan’s potential growth rate could rise by around one percentage point. Measures to slow the shrinkage of the labour force and to reduce the... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that Japan’s economy stabilised in the fourth quarter, but a rapid recovery is not on the cards. 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Small-cap equities may not lag behind for long The unusual gap that has opened up between the economic performance of small firms and the performance of small-cap equity indices is more likely to be closed by a rise in equity prices. After all... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) & Employment (Q3) Euro-zone industrial data for October and employment figures for Q3 confirmed that, even before the resurgence of the Greek crisis and associated political and economic uncertainty, underlying... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will be the fall-out from the latest Greek crisis? Contagion effects from Greece’s latest crisis have so far been reassuringly limited. But that may not last and the episode is a reminder that even those economies which have cut their budget deficits... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Banks in the Gulf well placed to weather low oil prices The slump in oil prices has caused concerns to emerge about the exposure of financial institutions to energy companies, but for banks in the Gulf this risk seems small. They are more vulnerable to a... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Business Outlook Survey (Q4) The deterioration in business conditions in today’s Business Outlook Survey is largely the result of seasonal patterns. In fact, the survey suggests that the economic recovery remains intact. 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek yields to remain high despite programme extension The two-month extension to Greece’s EU programme, agreed yesterday by euro-zone finance ministers, was expected given recent wrangling over the Greek Budget. But the further austerity it could bring... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How likely is a Ukrainian default? Ukraine’s deepening recession and the slide in the central bank’s FX reserves have raised fresh questions about whether the government will default on its debt. On the economics alone, we think... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Four fiscal fragilities could emerge in time While the Autumn Statement once again saw the Chancellor make the most of a poor hand, we remain concerned that many of his fiscal gambles are unlikely to fully pay off. To our minds, the assumptions... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
