US Economics Weekly Odds of another government shutdown still fairly low There is a good chance that Congress will pass an omnibus spending bill this week, which should keep most of the Federal government funded until next October. We still think it is unlikely that there... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Easing FDI restrictions are a small step in the right direction The decision this week to lift restrictions on FDI into the construction sector is another indication of the government’s willingness to address India’s investment needs. But even so, there is still a... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Slump in oil price to support global growth in 2015 Global growth has cooled a bit in recent months. The expansion in the US and UK has continued, but China’s economy has slowed further, the euro-zone is stagnant and Japan is in recession. Looking... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Falling oil prices open the door to rate cuts in Mexico Mexico’s growth story has lost some of its shine in recent weeks. We still expect GDP growth to accelerate in 2015. But the recent fall in oil prices, coupled with the fact that fiscal policy is... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to expect in 2015 China’s leaders will be gathering in Beijing shortly to discuss priorities for 2015. In this month’s China Watch we outline our views on what to expect on growth, monetary policy and reform. 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2014: Staying the course This was a budget in all but name – and a pre-election one at that. It was designed to be attractive to voters in the here and now, while not taking any risks with the public finances. 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deflation a bigger threat to Sweden than Budget chaos The new Swedish Government lost a key parliamentary vote on its Budget today, throwing politics in the country into turmoil and raising the possibility of fresh elections. But the potential upheaval... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Autumn Statement Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the key measures and numbers announced during the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. Our more... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Deflation a bigger threat to Sweden than Budget chaos The new Swedish Government lost a key parliamentary vote on its Budget today, throwing politics in the country into turmoil and raising the possibility of fresh elections. But the potential upheaval... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguay: Vásquez victory unlikely to reinvigorate growth Continuity of economic policy following Mr. Vásquez’s victory in Uruguay’s presidential election is likely to ensure that inflation remains high and economic growth relatively weak. We are forecasting... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Expenditure (Q3) The Ministry of Finance’s survey on corporate finances points to an upward revision of non-residential investment in the second estimate of Q3 GDP. 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What does the Chancellor have up his sleeve? While the rumour mill has been fairly silent, the Chancellor is surely piecing together a small package of measures for his Autumn Statement to provide a pre-election boost to households’ finances. A... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What if the Swiss vote to “save our gold”? This weekend the Swiss public will probably reject a proposal to force the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to increase its gold holdings. Nonetheless, a surprise “yes” would provide a significant boost to... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3) The 0.1% q/q increase in Brazil GDP in Q3 means that the economy has limped out of recession, but the weakness of growth underlines the scale of the challenge facing the new team of economic... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria forced to hike rates, while SA & Kenya hold fire The slump in the Nigerian naira this month forced the central bank to take drastic action. Interest rates were hiked for the first time in three years and the currency was devalued. But given that the... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Two cheers for Brazil’s new economic team The announcement of a new economic team in Brazil – and the nomination of Joaquim Levy as Finance Minister in particular – will strengthen hopes for a return to more orthodox policies during President... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
