China Economics Update Fourth Plenum signals next phase of anti-graft efforts It is tempting to dismiss the Communist Party’s talk of boosting the “rule of law” in China as simply hot air. Beneath the rhetoric though, the focus is on institutionalising the ongoing anti... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia’s new president has his work cut out Joko Widodo, the outgoing mayor of Jakarta, who takes over as Indonesia’s president on Monday, is seen by some as the man to turn the country’s fortunes around. But while he has attracted plenty of... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's economy probably stagnated in Q3 Activity data for August contain some evidence that conditions in Brazil’s beleaguered economy may have started to improve. But as things stand it seems the best we can hope for is that GDP in the... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update German weakness takes its toll on CEE Of all the reasons to expect softer growth in Central and Eastern Europe, the weakness of the German economy is by far the most compelling. Indeed, we estimate that it accounts for the bulk of the... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Adverse market reaction hits Greek bail-out exit hopes The adverse market reaction to the Greek Government’s plans to exit its IMF bail-out early has underlined the fragility of market sentiment towards the country and presumably made it very unlikely... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small businesses struggle in September As it is consistent with slower investment growth, lower inflation and a rise in the unemployment rate, the NFIB’s latest survey of small firms bolsters the case of the doves at the Fed. 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update “Occupy Central” not the only headwind to Hong Kong’s economy The demonstrations in Hong Kong are taking their toll on the economy, with the retail sector so far bearing the brunt. But even if the protests die down, the ongoing corruption crackdown in China and... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Drop in yields and oil price trump higher dollar We expect the boost from lower long-term interest rates to outweigh any negative impact on economic growth from the stronger dollar. The 10-year yield started the year at 3.0%, but most recently has... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How our forecasts differ from consensus and the IMF In this Weekly we look at how our GDP forecasts differ from consensus and those recently released by the IMF. In most countries our 2015 growth forecasts are not far out of line, but there are four... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rise in Mexican investment has further to run Stronger investment spending looks set to underpin faster economic growth in Mexico over the coming years. So in contrast to Brazil where weak investment has caused capacity constraints to build and... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian labour data suggest weaker growth a structural problem The fallout from the crisis in Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions imposed by Western governments have certainly contributed to the recent weakness of Russia’s economy. But there are ominous signs –... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisian elections may prove to be the spur for reform Upcoming elections in Tunisia are another important step along the country’s long and bumpy path to democracy. If the elections pass smoothly, as seems likely, this should at the very least provide a... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latest rise in Brazilian inflation gives ammunition to Neves The latest rise in Brazilian inflation, which has pushed it further above the upper bound of the central bank’s target range, will give further ammunition to Aécio Neves ahead of his run-off against... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why slower growth is the "new normal" for emerging markets For all the recent talk of a “great moderation” in EM growth, the uncomfortable truth is that the big slowdown in the emerging world actually occurred several years ago. More recently, growth has in... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Sep.) The renewed deterioration in the outlook component of today’s Economy Watchers Survey suggests that a rapid recovery of Japan’s economy is not on the cards. 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the threat from “geopolitics”? Geopolitical risks have grabbed the headlines recently and have been cited as a key factor depressing global economic prospects. However, the military conflicts which have attracted most attention... 6th October 2014 · 1 min read
