Global Markets Update Four reasons to worry about the UK election The UK general election on Thursday is the most hotly contested in recent history. There are many plausible outcomes, most of which present different threats to the UK’s financial markets. We review... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Election just one reason to keep rates on hold We doubt that the Monetary Policy Committee would want to change monetary policy so close to a general election, especially when a new government might not even have been formed by the time of this... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Recovery should endure political uncertainty With a hung parliament appearing overwhelming likely, Thursday’s general election looks set to be followed by days, if not weeks, of political horse-trading, and whatever government is finally formed... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Renewed yen weakness and Nikkei strength lie ahead We remain positive on the outlook for Japanese equities and negative on the yen, despite the Bank of Japan’s failure to announce additional monetary stimulus today. 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Election 2015 Preview The economic outlook will not turn on a sixpence after the election. Granted, the election may mark only the start of a period of political uncertainty and, on paper, the differences between Labour’s... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The decline in industrial production in March was much less pronounced than expected and suggests that GDP growth remained solid last quarter. As such, it would provide an excuse for the Bank of Japan... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French business surveys point to weak economic recovery France’s economic outlook appears particularly uncertain at the moment, with the business surveys painting a mixed picture. But even the most positive of these surveys still points to fairly sluggish... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of the Saudi government reshuffle The reshuffle at the top of Saudi Arabia’s government probably has more political than economic implications. In particular, it means that any hopes for a swift end to the Yemen conflict have probably... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Apr.) The European Commission’s monthly Business and Consumer survey for April echoed the message from some other recent surveys that the crisis in Greece might be starting to constrain the euro-zone... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) March’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that economic growth might pick up in the coming months. But the continued wrangling over Greece’s fiscal situation presents a significant risk to the country’s... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q1) With the general election just days away, the news that the economic recovery slowed sharply in the first quarter clearly won’t help the coalition parties. However, we expect the slowdown to be only... 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Apr.) Small business confidence weakened in April and remains consistent with sluggish activity in the manufacturing sector. 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Increased financial inclusion will support growth in Africa New figures from the World Bank confirm that Sub-Saharan Africa’s nascent banking sector is developing along a trajectory not seen in other emerging markets. The rapid expansion of a more inclusive... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia’s economy slumps, growth weakens in Turkey The region’s two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – have continued to struggle over the past month. Russia’s economy appears to have contracted sharply by around 3% y/y in Q1. Meanwhile, we... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Relative calm unlikely to last In a relatively quiet week, oil prices consolidated their recent gains as the consensus swung round to our view that the lows recorded in Q1 would prove to be the turning point. However, powerful... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Grexit risks underline need for MPC caution Although all eyes are on the general election due to take place in less than a fortnight, developments across the Channel have the potential to be just as important an influence on the UK economy in... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
