Law & Justice victory dampens Poland’s medium-term outlook

Exit polls suggest that the opposition Law and Justice won a convincing victory in yesterday’s Polish parliamentary election, which is likely to cement concerns about a shift towards more populist policymaking. There’s a lot of uncertainty about what Law and Justice will actually implement. We think the change in government is likely to have a fairly limited impact on the economy in the near term, but it may dampen Poland’s growth prospects over the medium term.