Upcoming elections key to outlook for several FMs

Four frontier markets are due to hold national elections in the coming month. The most high-profile election is in Argentina where Daniel Scioli, the candidate of the ruling left-wing coalition, appears on course to win the country’s presidency. With the economy on an unsustainable path, either the new president shifts course or market forces will produce a more disorderly adjustment.

The elections taking place elsewhere are likely to be important steps in these countries’ institutional development. In Myanmar, the military, which has held power in the country for over 50 years, looks set to loosen its grip. Meanwhile, Côte d’Ivoire should avoid a repeat of the large-scale violence that followed elections in 2010. Alassane Ouattara, who is popular with investors and whose first term in office marked a turnaround in the economy, looks set to be comfortably re-elected. And while the ruling CCM party is likely to hold on to power in Tanzania, the vote there will probably be the most competitive since independence.