Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran sanctions relief: assessing the impact Sanctions relief should support a revival of Iran’s economy and a short period in which it enjoys growth of as much as 6-8%. But there is unlikely to be much impact on the rest of the region, either... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does Taiwan’s election result mean for the economy? The weekend’s election result marks a major political landmark for Taiwan, with the anti-China Democratic People’s Party (DPP) winning not only the presidency, but also gaining control of the... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB on hold for now, but doves will win in the end After disappointing markets in December, we expect the ECB to indicate at its forthcoming meeting that the door is still open to bolder policy support. The Bank is unlikely to alter policy for now... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update “Clicks” fared better than “bricks” this Christmas The range of survey and anecdotal evidence out so far suggests that growth in high-street spending over the festive period as a whole was fairly reasonable. It is also clear that the gulf between... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s populist shift bodes poorly for zloty & MT growth The lurch to a more populist policymaking agenda in Poland hasn’t made much difference to the near-term economic outlook, but it will harm medium-term growth prospects and, more immediately, depress... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is sterling’s shaky start to the year a sign of things to come? A shift in market interest rate expectations, a spate of weak economic data and the looming “Brexit” vote are probably all partly to blame for sterling’s recent weakness. Although the currency looks... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Macri makes impressive start Mauricio Macri has made a strong start to his term as president of Argentina, tackling some of the country’s biggest macroeconomic distortions in his first month in office. There’s work still to do –... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Dec.) The latest BRC retail sales figures suggest that December was a reasonable, but hardly spectacular, end to a strong year for high-street spending. It appears that consumers did not exhaust their... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business hiring intentions warn of full-blown recession The Bank of Canada's fourth-quarter update on business intentions suggests that the economy is slipping back into recession, with shrinking investment soon to be accompanied by a downturn in... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Elections in 2016 – what they mean for Asia In this first Weekly of 2016, we take our usual look at the important elections that are set to take place in Asia over the coming year, assessing the implications for policymaking and the region’s... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Mohammed bin Salman fleshes out Saudi Arabia’s economic plans In an interview with The Economist published earlier today, Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (or MbS, as he is known locally) outlined encouragingly ambitious fiscal and reform... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect in 2016 In our first India Watch of 2016, we outline the prospects for India’s economy over the coming year. The lagged effect of earlier policy loosening and weakness in global commodity prices should... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update New forecasts for Brazil In response to the deepening economic and political crisis in Brazil we are marking down some of our key forecasts. We now expect interest rates to be raised further, the currency to weaken a little... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Can Thailand move out of the slow lane? Thailand’s economy has had a disappointing decade, partly reflecting the economic costs of prolonged political conflict. The military-backed government’s recent efforts to address Thailand’s... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan’s government really spending more than ever? At first sight, Japan’s budget plans suggest that the government is planning to loosen the purse strings next year. In fact, fiscal policy will probably be tightened again. 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Argentina goes orthodox The inauguration of President Mauricio Macri has brought about a shift towards more orthodox economic policymaking in Argentina. Over a decade of populist and interventionist macroeconomic policy has... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
