UK Economics Update “Sufficient progress” still not made While Theresa May’s speech in Florence appears to have had a positive effect on the Brexit negotiations, it still looks unlikely that “sufficient progress” on the withdrawal agreement will be made by... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Abe recommits to sales tax hike Prime Minister Abe has pitched the snap legislative election that he has called for next month as a plebiscite on fiscal policy. He is arguing that the sales tax hike scheduled for October 2019 should... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Activity, Labour Market & Inflation (Aug.) Today’s activity data point to a slowdown in GDP growth in Q3. Meanwhile, price pressures are strengthening again as the labour market remains tight. But we expect inflation to settle around 0.5% in... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African markets soften in September A combination of rising political risk and falling commodity prices caused key African markets to weaken over the past month. Only a few markets bucked the trend, and they gained very little ground. 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Turning point? The encouraging signs about the health of the Australian economy have continued over the past month, with employment growth gathering pace and the outlook for business investment improving. (See Chart... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Monetary policy outlook clouded by political uncertainty We no longer expect the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to cut interest rates again this year. The Government’s collapse and prospect of a left-wing coalition taking power have increased the chance of a... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The end of the Saudi driving ban & the economic impact The Saudi government’s decision to lift the ban that prohibits women from driving in the Kingdom is clearly a positive step for women’s rights and could potentially have a significant economic impact... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Sep.) Small business confidence was little changed in September and points to modest gains in industrial production. Meanwhile, the survey confirms that capacity shortages have intensified but suggests that... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Snap election puts tax hike back onto agenda Japan’s ruling coalition should emerge victorious from the upcoming Lower House elections but “Abenomics” has long since run out of momentum and so there is little prospect of meaningful structural... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German election: near-term gain, long-term pain? The German election looks set to yield a coalition of Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU, the FDP and the Green Party. This will mean slightly lower taxes than under the alternative of another grand coalition... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Post-election negotiations may influence economy The financial markets won’t worry too much about how long it takes the various parties to form a government after the weekend’s general election, but the negotiations could influence the outlook for... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The pick-up in the manufacturing PMI in September suggests that industrial activity continued to rise at a strong pace in the third quarter. However, the survey suggests that price pressures remain... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Unfreezing talks, but kicking the can down the road Prime Minister Theresa May’s much-hyped Florence speech has probably inched the UK closer to having made “sufficient progress” on the withdrawal phase of the negotiations. However, there are still... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What will Germany’s election mean for the economy? The German election taking place on Sunday is not expected to have a significant impact on the economy. But the composition of the next coalition – which is likely to be either another grand coalition... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly When will R&D spending start to recover? Spending on research and development has been sluggish recently, but the recent rebound in corporate profits suggests it will start to recover before long. This would provide a boost to domestic... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core price pressures are building Some have argued that the recent jump in inflation is all about a surge in volatile food prices, with the implication that it shouldn’t have a significant bearing on monetary policy. But this ignores... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
