Europe Economics Update No end in sight for Italian fiscal stand-off The Italian Government’s reply to the European Commission suggests that there is unlikely to be a quick resolution to the current fiscal impasse. We expect yields to rise in the coming years. 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Politics and policy may take centre stage Commodity markets will have little in the way of relevant data to focus on next week. Instead, prices are likely to be driven more by developments on the political and policy fronts. The case of the... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC restarts FX sales, state media get new buzzword The PBOC has been hiding its efforts to support the renminbi over recent months. But a release this week showed the clear hand of the central bank: the PBOC’s balance sheet for September reveals the... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Growth still well above trend in third quarter Data next week are likely to show GDP growth slowing to 3.3% annualised in the third quarter. That would still be well above the economy’s potential growth rate but, looking under the hood, there are... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit deadlock, outlook for real pay brightens The October European Council meeting – long billed as the moment when a Brexit deal would be done and dusted – has come and gone. And the UK and EU positions look as irreconcilable as ever. While we... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Reform hopes in Malaysia, tourists shun Thailand The election of former Malaysian deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim to the parliamentary seat of Port Dickinson last weekend bodes well for reform prospects in the country. A slump in Chinese... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa budget speech, Angolan recession, Ethiopian reshuffle Despite the weakness of the economy, South Africa’s new finance minister will probably use next week’s budget review to tighten fiscal policy, rather than to announce new stimulus measures. On a... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Share buybacks won’t prevent fiscal slippage In an effort to put its finances back onto the track set out in this year’s budget, the government is now considering ordering state-owned firms to initiate share buybacks, according to reports this... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global fallout from a no deal Brexit would be modest While a disorderly no deal Brexit might, depending on its nature, deliver a significant short-term blow to the UK economy and financial markets, any global fallout would probably be small. 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of Amlo’s policy proposals The platform of Mexico’s president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) has become clearer in recent weeks and a sudden lurch to the left when he takes office in December seems unlikely. One... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Khashoggi scandal, Saudi fiscal slippage, Egypt tourism Saudi Arabia might be patching together a face-saving statement over the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khasoggi, but the affair will damage the country’s long-term economic prospects and another... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global fallout from a no deal Brexit would be modest While a disorderly no deal Brexit might, depending on its nature, deliver a significant short-term blow to the UK economy and financial markets, any global fallout would probably be small. 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: fresh political shock and oil prices key risks to watch The fallout from the disappearance of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, has supposedly shifted investors’ attention to the Saudi government’s rising debt burden, but we think that these concerns are... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Modest slowdown masks large divergences Prospects for Europe have deteriorated somewhat as slowing global demand has begun to affect exports and a sharp rise in bond yields has darkened the outlook for Italy. Some of the major players... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: Elections will not improve long-run outlook Even if a planned election for next year passes smoothly, political uncertainty is likely to remain a drag on Thailand’s growth prospects. 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery losing steam Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will probably strengthen a touch in 2019, but growth across the region will remain weaker than consensus expectations. We think that growth in Nigeria will slow... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
