India Economics Update RBI and government signal tentative truce The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government found common ground on some of the points of contention between them at the Bank’s board meeting yesterday. But key issues remain unresolved, and the... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Easing net migration a headwind to GDP growth Policy changes and a narrowing between the relative attractiveness of Australia and New Zealand will contribute to a slowdown in net migration to New Zealand. Easing net migration will cause growth in... 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: sanctions to have limited near-term impact The imposition of targeted sanctions by the US on Saudi Arabia in relation to the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi is unlikely to hit local financial markets hard when they reopen on Sunday. After... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine political risk, Levy’s BNDES challenge Argentina’s Senate this week passed the government’s IMF-endorsed austerity budget for next year, but bond markets are starting to share our concerns over mounting political risks surrounding October... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit deal dead on arrival, earnings on the up With Theresa May’s EU deal already seemingly dead in the water and speculation rife that a no-confidence vote in her leadership is imminent, the chances of the UK heading for either a “no deal” Brexit... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank still on course for December hike October’s weaker-than expected inflation data, published this week, are unlikely to deter the Riksbank from raising interest rates in the coming months, with a December hike most likely in our view... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA: Land reform escalates, SARB will hold rates next week South Africa’s government has taken a big step towards the expropriation of land without compensation, but fears that land reform will disrupt the economy are overblown. Meanwhile, given weak economic... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Chances rise of an “orderly” no deal Brexit News that Theresa May could soon face a leadership challenge is the latest twist in the Brexit saga, but even if she survives, the key point is that the chances of her deal being passed by parliament... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Chances rise of an “orderly” no deal News that Theresa May could soon face a leadership challenge is the latest twist in the Brexit saga, but even if she survives, the key point is that the chances of her deal being passed by parliament... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil slumps, more political twists in Tunisia and Lebanon The drop in oil prices over the past week probably has further to run, which is a key reason why we think that the economic recovery in the Gulf will peak in the middle of 2019 and perhaps even sooner... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Oct.) The consumer price figures support our view that inflation will probably be back at the 2% target next year. Nonetheless, this is predicated on a Brexit deal being struck. In the event of a “no deal”... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Real income recovery to spur spending In our base case, which is predicated on a Brexit deal being secured and the UK entering into a status quo transition period, a further rise in real earnings should spur a recovery in consumer... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State elections a test of BJP’s popularity Upcoming state elections in India will, as ever, have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. They will also go some way to determining whether the ruling BJP will be able to gain... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit timer running out The next few weeks of Brexit negotiations will prove critical in determining whether a deal will be wrapped up by Christmas. We would not be surprised if the talks dragged on into the New Year, in... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Five questions on Colombia’s tax reform The tax reform introduced to Colombia’s congress is unlikely to pass in its current form, but even a diluted version would result in tighter fiscal policy, higher inflation and, ultimately, more... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Slower global growth won’t stop UK rebound Concern that increasing Brexit uncertainty is causing the economy to slow sharply, as indicated by the slide in the PMI survey, look overdone. Indeed, other indicators are less downbeat. And while... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
