India Chart Pack Import duty hikes unlikely to aid local manufacturing Recent hikes to import duties on various goods appear to be an attempt by Prime Minister Modi and the BJP to shore up popular support ahead of a clutch of state elections this year, and the general... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) While the manufacturing PMI weakened in February it remains near the highest it has been since 2014’s sales tax hike and consistent with strong gains in industrial output. Meanwhile, the survey... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Is Japan overheating? Japan’s economy recorded an eighth consecutive quarter of growth in Q4, the longest uninterrupted run of expansion since the late 1980s. Unemployment is very low, inflation has started to pick up... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deadlock in negotiations next week? Given that the UK Government has disagreements with the EU over the scope of the transition deal, and no new solutions to avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland have been proposed, there is a... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: First thoughts on Zuma’s resignation The resignation of embattled South African President Jacob Zuma last night has provided a boost to local markets. His successor inherits an economy that is already well into a cyclical upswing. Over... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Political drama masks economic recovery Attention in South Africa is firmly focused on news that the ANC will vote President Jacob Zuma out of office on Thursday. But the political drama has distracted from a marked cyclical improvement in... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: What comes next for Jacob Zuma? Party leaders’ formal call for President Jacob Zuma to resign will further expedite his replacement by Cyril Ramaphosa. But the precise timing and nature of his removal from office remains unclear. In... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Transition period “not a given” This week saw negotiations resume for the first time since the EU Council agreed in December that talks could move on to a possible transition period. However, UK Government objections to some of the... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Transition period “not a given” This week saw negotiations resume for the first time since the EU Council agreed in December that talks could move on to a possible transition period. However, UK Government objections to some of the... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Latest impact assessments tell us nothing new The revelation that the Department for Exiting the EU (DExEU) has produced an assessment of the likely impact of various Brexit options on the economy has dominated the press this week, but does not... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) Industrial production recorded another marked rise last quarter which suggests that GDP growth remained strong. However, the outlook for the coming months is less rosy. 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Economy becoming increasingly formalised A key theme running through the government’s latest Economic Survey is the growing numbers of workers and firms being brought into the formal economy, and so subject to taxation and closer regulatory... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How would China fight a trade war? If the long-running skirmishes between the US and China were to escalate into a trade war, China would try to occupy the moral high ground by portraying itself as a defender of free trade. At the time... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will Brexit uncertainty finally bite in 2018? A key reason why most forecasters were too gloomy about the UK economy last year was that Brexit-related uncertainty was much less damaging than they had expected. Judging by the gloominess of... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are bond markets too sanguine about Italy? Investors appear to be calm ahead of Italy’s forthcoming election, and we think that they are right not to panic. That said, the next government is likely to be more lax with fiscal policy, so we... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Transition deal negotiations about to kick off The EU will publish its directives for negotiating a transitional arrangement on Monday, signalling the start of the next phase of negotiations. The UK Government seems prepared to accept the EU’s... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
