Africa Economics Weekly Angola turns to the IMF, Nigeria stuck in first gear Angola’s $3.7bn deal with the IMF adds to the evidence that President João Lourenço is making a real shift towards more orthodox policymaking and while growth will stay weak in the near-term, economic... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Trade Concessions, Reform and Opening Up 2.0? China resumed purchases of US soybeans this week and pledged to cut auto tariffs. But to clinch a lasting trade deal, it will need to convince the US that it is moving ahead with long-promised... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly BJP losses and new RBI governor raise policy risk The state election results announced this week were a clear setback for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP, as they suggest that goodwill is fading ahead of next year’s general election. While we still think... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) The Q4 Tankan survey was better than most had anticipated and adds to the evidence that the economy has turned the corner. Meanwhile, firms are reporting mounting difficulties finding staff which... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Effect of stockpiling on growth will be small We are not convinced by the argument that stockpiling ahead of Brexit will provide a big boost to GDP growth over the coming months and prompt an abrupt fall thereafter. Given that a large proportion... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB turns even more dovish The Swiss National Bank reiterated its commitment to its ultra-accommodative policy stance today and revised down its forecasts for inflation and GDP. As we think inflation will be even lower than... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka political crisis: growth to slow, rates to rise With the political crisis in Sri Lanka showing no sign of coming to an end, we are changing our GDP growth and interest rate forecasts for next year. 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Appointment of Modi loyalist a worrying step for RBI The first briefing from the RBI’s new governor, Shaktikanta Das, sought to provide assurance that the central bank will continue to prioritise inflation fighting. But his background at the finance... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Leadership challenge triggered: what next? There are a myriad of different ways in which the UK political situation could play out. We can glean from recent markets moves that a disorderly Brexit would probably prompt sterling to fall further... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Macron’s measures unlikely to boost the economy Protests in France are likely to put a serious dent in GDP growth in Q4. And while the giveaways announced yesterday will boost disposable incomes next year, any positive effect on the economy is... 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State elections raise prospect of populist shift by Modi A disappointing set of state election results for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP suggests that the ruling national party has lost some goodwill and the risk now is that, in response, fiscal (and... 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: election will not improve long-run outlook Even if a general election that has now been confirmed for 24th February passes smoothly, political uncertainty is likely to remain a drag on Thailand’s prospects. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP monthly estimate (Oct.) The weaker GDP figures for October seem to be mainly a reflection of the unwinding of some temporary factors which had boosted growth in Q3, rather than a significant slowdown in underlying activity... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa land reform: More Taiwan than Zimbabwe The move towards land expropriation without compensation in South Africa has prompted fears of a Zimbabwe-style ‘land grab’. But examples from Asia show that land reform can be a success. 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly PMI’s too pessimistic, 50 shades of Brexit The deterioration in the business surveys in November was probably partly driven by growing fears that the Brexit mess will not be sorted out in time to avoid a no deal rather than an actual fall in... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP growth slowing, but wage growth rising The latest data on economic activity in the euro-zone have been weak, but policymakers at the ECB will have been encouraged by the continued acceleration in wage growth. At its meeting on Thursday... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
