Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro boost continues, Banxico a bit less hawkish Brazilian markets have performed strongly this week as hopes for business-friendly reforms under President Jair Bolsonaro have continued to build, but we think that the rally may run out of steam... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Shutdown likely to continue into third week The Federal government has now been partially shuttered for the past two weeks, which already makes it one of the longest closures on record. Given the intransigence on both sides, there is a very... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE bond rally to reverse, Turkish elections and rate cuts Investors pared back their expectations for interest rate hikes in Central Europe this week, but we still think that a fresh pick-up in inflation will prompt more monetary tightening than most... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Strong growth in Kenya, MTN settles in Nigeria Figures released in Kenya this week have strengthened our view that the country will be one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies of 2019. Meanwhile, the settlement between South African telecoms... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak end to 2018, rate cuts likely in the Philippines Data published over the past week show that Emerging Asia ended 2018 on a soft note, a trend we expect to continue into 2019. Meanwhile, a further sharp drop in inflation in the Philippines in... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Dec.) Despite the small rise in the headline index of the Markit/CIPS services survey in December, it is quite clear that economic growth slowed in Q4. But we think this survey is once again overstating the... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Election measures raise long-term risks The drumbeat of pre-election giveaways continues at the state level in the form of loan waivers and from the national government. These steps may be effective politically but they risk eroding... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook Survey (Q4) The slump in the Business Outlook Survey future sales balance looks consistent with GDP growth falling towards zero and is another reason to doubt that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Could the UK top the G7 growth table in 2019? Clearly what form Brexit takes (if it takes place at all!) will be the key influence on the economy next year, but our sense is that there is a bit more upside to GDP growth and the pound than widely... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage market can weather the shutdown If it continues, the partial Federal shutdown is likely to lead to a decline in the mortgage closing rate. But lenders showed flexibility to get around the virtual closure of the FHA and IRS during... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela debt crisis phase II, what to watch in 2019 News that creditors have started the process for triggering an “acceleration” clause in one of Venezuela’s sovereign dollar bonds suggests that, after a lengthy impasse, the debt crisis is likely to... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Key challenges facing Bangladesh after the election The Awami League led by Prime Minister Hasina is widely expected to win the general election on 30 th December. Low wages and a rapidly growing workforce mean Bangladesh should continue to pick up low... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP National Accounts (Q3) & Public Finances (Nov.) The economy isn’t as healthy as the unrevised 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in the third quarter suggests, but providing that a Brexit deal is reached, we think GDP growth will surprise on the upside next year... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Buhari’s budget, Nigerian bank consolidation, Ghana GDP Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari laid out his 2019 budget proposal this week, emphasising that he plans to keep key policies unchanged if he is re-elected in February. A big bank merger in the... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Xi’s flawed “China model”, PBOC’s new policy tool Xi Jinping used the 40 th anniversary of the start of China’s economic reforms to set out a narrative which placed state and, in particular, Party control at the heart of China’s subsequent economic... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should Brexit fog clear, risks to rates lie on the upside The thickening Brexit fog meant that the Monetary Policy Committee was always going to leave interest rates at 0.75% today and it looks as though that fog won’t fade for a few months. But should a... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
