Europe Economics Update The implications of Catalan autonomy Greater autonomy for Catalonia would probably have a detrimental impact on Spain’s public finances. But it would reduce calls for secession, and therefore limit the risk of a renewed and potentially... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Spending (Q2) Today’s capital spending data suggest that business investment was much stronger last quarter than initially reported. This points to an upward revision to GDP growth in next week’s second estimate. 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina relapses, Mexican peso muted on trade deal The sense of crisis that engulfed Argentina on Wednesday and Thursday seems to have eased today and, while there is a clear risk that the currency falls further in the near term, based on the real... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss franc strength unlikely to last The Swiss franc has strengthened against the euro this week, but we doubt that this will last. Meanwhile, we think that Sweden’s forthcoming general election is unlikely to have much of a... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Don’t bank on Brexit breakthrough, consumer outlook dim The EU Chief Brexit Negotiator, Michel Barnier’s suggestion that the EU is ready to offer the UK a bespoke Brexit deal has provided some reassurance that the UK is not heading for a disruptive “no... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina back in crisis The sell-off in the Argentine peso this month gathered pace after the government’s impromptu request to draw down more of its IMF bailout. Rather than soothing market tensions, this reinforced... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigerian growth slows, MTN fined, Theresa May in Africa Nigeria’s economy slowed in Q2, despite stronger non-oil growth. More recently, an unexpectedly big fine imposed on MTN this week will raise questions about the country’s regulatory environment. The... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Trade war or cold war? The end of the summer in Beijing has brought with it a hardening of views on the trade dispute with the US. Increasingly, tariffs are being seen not as negotiating ploys to win run-of-the-mill... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisian dinar falls further, Lebanon in the spotlight The Tunisian dinar has continued to decline over the past week and we think that the currency has further to fall. However, any moves should be fairly gradual. Elsewhere, the recent widening of... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asian currencies remain resilient Asian currencies have continued to hold up pretty well over the past few weeks despite the turmoil in EM currency markets. Since the start of August, the Korean won and the Thai baht have actually... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Turkey worries rock South Africa, less effect elsewhere Fears that financial turbulence in Turkey were the first sign of broader problems rumbled markets across the emerging world in August, with South Africa one of the hardest-hit. The country has Africa... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia already slipping on fiscal reforms Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement yesterday that the government will soften a planned rise in the retirement age wasn’t altogether surprising, but it marks part of a broader slippage on... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank on pause ahead of October rate rise Even if NAFTA negotiations are concluded successfully this week, the Bank of Canada is likely to wait until October before it raises interest rates. 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update After Mexico, could a US-China deal follow? This week’s agreement between the US and Mexico has raised hopes that the US and China could also resolve their dispute. But the agreement with Mexico underlines how much hangs on whether President... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update UK-Africa trade ties will remain limited UK Prime Minister Theresa May is using a visit to Africa to promote economic ties with the region, but we doubt that trade links between Britain and Sub-Saharan Africa will strengthen over the coming... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Households holding up well Australian households have been more resilient to low income growth and falling house prices than we expected. After rising by just 0.3% q/q in the first quarter, the solid rises in retail sales in... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
