Global Economics Update Putting China’s surplus into perspective China’s bilateral trade surplus with the US and concerns about unfair trade practices are likely to keep US-China trade tensions boiling for a long time. But China’s overall current account surplus is... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Geopolitical fears rise, higher oil price offers some relief Mounting tensions surrounding the conflicts in Syria and Yemen have rattled financial markets in the MENA region, but the associated rally in oil prices should limit the economic fallout for the Gulf... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Tight labour market finally boosting pay Revised data show that regular earnings expanded at the fastest pace in two decades at the start of this year, underlining that the tight labour market is finally generating stronger cost pressures... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Has Xi done enough to placate Trump? In an attempt to de-escalate trade tensions, Xi has pledged to speed up efforts to reduce trade and investment barriers, boost competition and bolster intellectual property protections. This could... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s sanction sell-off and the economic impact The US sanctions imposed on Russia last Friday have caused turmoil in Russia’s markets today and financial conditions have tightened as a result. But at this stage it doesn’t look like there will be a... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: Fidesz’s third term starts as economic cycle turns Fidesz-KDNP’s sweeping victory in Sunday’s parliamentary election in Hungary has been welcomed by local financial markets, but the late stage of the economic cycle means the government’s next term is... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Election likely to entrench Malaysia’s problems Against the backdrop of a strong economy and with gerrymandering stacking the odds firmly in his favour, Prime Minister Najib Razak is highly likely to win an election which will now take place by May... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Business investment will continue to impress The early indications point to a fall in capital spending in Q1. However, mounting capacity and staff shortages suggest that spending on machinery and equipment will continue to grow faster than... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rising trade tensions increase upside risks to inflation We think consumer price inflation will have risen further last month to a fresh multi-year high, boosted by a rise in food price inflation. This probably marks the peak for inflation this year, though... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rally in Brazilian markets after Lula ruling to be limited The ruling by Brazil’s Supreme Court to imprison left-wing populist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) all but ends his bid for the presidency and throws the election race wide open. While markets are... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Trade war fears mount The growing threat of a US-China trade war is the key risk to the outlook. The tariff measures announced so far don’t amount to much, but any escalation in trade tensions that leads to a significant... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China raises the stakes of US trade action China’s rapid and aggressive response to the proposed US tariffs has raised the stakes for both sides. But its move to publish a list of counter-tariffs is primarily intended as a deterrent and we... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Does AMLO’s energy self-sufficiency plan make sense? Mexican presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO’s) goal to stop importing refined oil within three years might be a vote winner, but the large investment into domestic refining... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How will Germany fare under its new Government? The new German Government plans a fiscal boost equivalent to around 0.4% of GDP per year during its term. Increased spending on child benefits, pensions and refugee integration will support consumer... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that growth slowed last quarter. Nonetheless, staff shortages have continued to intensify and price pressures are strengthening. 2nd April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (Feb.) & Tokyo CPI (Mar.) The rebound in industrial production in February wasn’t strong enough to prevent a slump in output last quarter and we reiterate our forecast that GDP shrank in Q1. Meanwhile, the labour market... 30th March 2018 · 1 min read
