India Economics Focus Will higher female participation boost the economy? Only one-quarter of Indian women of working age are in paid employment. If participation in the workforce could increase to the rates of other Asian countries such as Indonesia or the Philippines by... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly “Strong” GDP growth won’t be sustained While the Fed hailed activity growth as “strong” at its policy meeting this week, we doubt GDP growth will maintain a 4% plus annualised pace in the third quarter. It’s early days, but data released... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Perfect storm brewing in Turkey, BMW comes to Hungary The US’s decision to impose sanctions on Turkey this week, as well as another bad inflation reading, has strengthened the case for further interest rate hikes. And there’s a growing risk of severe... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What impact would sanctions on Russian sovereign debt have? A bill presented in the US Senate yesterday has raised the threat of US sanctions on Russian sovereign debt. Were the bill to pass, we think it might plausibly add a premium of about 50-100bp to the... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa: Rate cuts continue, land reform fears overdone While policymakers in other EMs are hiking rates, we think that African central banks will follow Kenya's recent example and continue to ease policy over the next 18 months. Fears surrounding the... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO slipping, Egypt’s car export hopes dented Reports that Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund is looking for alternative sources of financing suggest that the government is moving further away from its flagship sale of a stake in Aramco. This... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: assessing the fallout from US sanctions The sanctions imposed by the US on two Turkish government ministers in themselves aren’t very big, but it looks likely that more measures will be announced. The lira is likely to fall further... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Assessing Asia’s vulnerability to a trade war Rising trade tensions between the US and China pose a major threat to the economic outlook for the region. The impact of the measures announced so far by President Trump should be small, and will be... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SA: Land reform: Market moves exceed economic risk President Ramaphosa’s call for constitutional change has stoked investor fears of economically-painful land reform. We think that this is overdone, but a poorly-managed process will boost market... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack What next for the Pakistani rupee? The rebound in the Pakistani rupee, which has gained around 4% against the US dollar since last week’s election, is likely to prove fleeting. The exact trigger behind the surprise jump in the currency... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A good start to Q3, chance of Brexit “no deal” falls The first activity surveys for July should provide a final bit of encouragement to the MPC to raise interest rates at its meeting next Thursday. Elsewhere, the EU’s Chief Negotiator, Michel Barnier... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Equities jump, exports resilient, BoK points to rate hike Asian equities have rebounded over the past week, helped in part by easing fears of a global trade war after the successful trade meeting between US President Donald Trump and EU President Jean-Claude... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin wavers on pension reform, Turkish sanctions Signs this week that Russian President Vladimir Putin now opposes a planned rise in the retirement age suggest that the one significant policy reform announced in the country in the past three years... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Inflation in Nigeria, violence in Mozambique The available evidence suggests that fears of a pre-election surge in Nigerian inflation are misplaced. Elsewhere, we doubt that violence will derail gas investment in Mozambique and expect that... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional growth set to slow further We expect GDP growth across Emerging Europe to slow by more than most expect over 2019-20 and monetary policy is set to be tightened further than is priced into markets. The important exception to... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Markets weather US-Iran tensions, Egypt seeks oil hedge Financial markets across the MENA region have shrugged off the latest escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, although we doubt that this resilience will last. Meanwhile, news that Egypt will... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
