Global Economics Update After Italy’s election, what happens next? The lengthy political uncertainty that seems likely to follow Italy’s election is unlikely on its own to do much economic damage. But we suspect that the prospect of looser fiscal policy, higher debt... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: notes from the ground We have just returned from a week of meetings with clients and local contacts in Bogotá. In this Update, we summarise four key takeaways from our visit. 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update After Italy’s election, what happens next? The lengthy political uncertainty that seems likely to follow Italy’s election is unlikely on its own to do much economic damage. But we suspect that the prospect of looser fiscal policy, higher debt... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress China’s retention of an “about 6.5%” growth target for GDP in 2018, while expected, undermines the argument that growth is being demoted as a central policy concern. Growth is likely to slow we... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update PM’s speech delivers less cake and more realism On the basis of this week’s developments, an agreement on a transition deal by the March European Council meeting hangs in the balance. Meanwhile, the Brexit vision that the Prime Minister set out on... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Risk of another Q1 wobble appears to be rising Our long-held belief that a rebound in core inflation and faster economic growth, partly due to fiscal stimulus, would prompt the Fed to hike interest rates four times this year is rapidly becoming... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update New Saudi bankruptcy law a step in the right direction Saudi Arabia’s new bankruptcy law, which was approved by King Salman last month, will make it easier to deal with the fallout from corporate failures and, through improving access to credit, support... 1st March 2018 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putin 4.0 unlikely to step up to the economic challenge President Putin’s State of the Nation address provided the first signs of his economic goals for his next term. On the face of it, it looks like Putin promised looser fiscal policy, but we think there... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Spending (Q4) The jump in capital spending excluding software last quarter suggests that non-residential investment was stronger than initially reported. However, this alone won’t be enough to lift overall GDP... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How big a threat is Italy’s election? Italy’s general election on Sunday 4th March seems likely to result in a government that pushes for a small fiscal stimulus, largely centred on tax cuts. But we doubt that this would provide much of a... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Putin 4.0: The Great Stagnation The outcome of Russia’s presidential election next month is not in doubt, although it’s still unclear what direction economic policy will take during President Putin’s fourth (and probably final) term... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State elections come into focus Prime Minister Modi is facing his busiest year of state elections in 2018. Elections that are due to take place this year will have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level, and will... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Political drama overshadows gradual recovery Attention over the past month has focused on political developments in South Africa and (to an admittedly lesser extent) Ethiopia. After refusing to heed repeated calls to reign, South African... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update President for life? The removal of the two-term limit on China’s president is the clearest sign yet that Xi Jinping is reversing China’s reform era shift toward more institutionalised and rule-based politics. The quality... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Cabinet consensus won’t unlock negotiations The “Canada plus, plus, plus” deal, including single market participation for some sectors, which UK Cabinet ministers reportedly agreed to this week is unlikely to be accepted by the EU in its... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Cabinet consensus won’t unlock negotiations The “Canada plus, plus, plus” deal, including single market participation for some sectors, which UK Cabinet ministers reportedly agreed to this week is unlikely to be accepted by the EU in its... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
