Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Region fares well in Q2, Turkey to hike rates next week Activity data released in Russia, Turkey and Poland suggest that regional GDP growth remained strong at around 4% y/y in Q2. Among a number of monetary policy decisions due next week, we expect Turkey... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s minimum wage policy backfiring The decision earlier this week to raise the hourly minimum wage by a further 11% next year will undermine President Moon Jae-in’s goal to reduce inequality and boost private consumption growth. 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Government set to face no-confidence vote The BJP-led government faces a no-confidence vote triggered by opposition parties over the coming days. We highly doubt the motion will lead to the fall of the government, given that the BJP holds a... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Corporate defaults surge Corporate bond defaults in China have jumped recently, adding to worries about the economic outlook. July is on track to more than double the previous monthly record for the scale of onshore bonds... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Outlook positive, but risks are rising Most European economies have experienced a slowdown since last year, but growth is still strong by historic standards and prospects are fairly bright. Admittedly, trade protection poses a serious... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines infrastructure drive: too much, too fast? The big push to update the Philippine’s infrastructure has led to a number of painful side effects, including a worsening external position, a falling currency and an increase in inflation. However... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal discipline slipping in Brazil The 2019 budget guidelines approved by Brazil’s Congress this week diluted measures to contain spending and reinforce our view that appetite for economic reform in the legislature is waning. Even if... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly GDP figures keep MPC on track, Brexit plan softened May’s GDP figures this week confirmed that the economy is starting to regain some momentum. That said, growth was still pretty anaemic, raising the possibility that the Monetary Policy Committee could... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan talks, markets tumble Turkish President Erdogan’s decisions this week to exclude investor-friendly members from his new cabinet and renew his calls for lower interest rates have rattled local financial markets and... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria: Conditions improved in Q2 Survey and output figures released this week suggested that conditions in Nigeria and South Africa improved in Q2. South African retail sales figures out next week will probably provide more evidence... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Too early to sound all-clear on credit conditions Housing finance commitments have started to edge up again and suggest that house prices won’t fall much further for now. Households are taking the weaker housing market in their stride and APRA... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Sensex surges, another parliament washout? While many other major EM equity markets have dropped recently amid rising fears of a global trade war, Indian equities have surged, with the Sensex reaching an all-time high this week. But while... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery will peter out in 2019 Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will probably strengthen over the second half of 2018, but we think that the consensus view that this year’s performance will mark the start of a multi-year... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Economy returned to growth in Q2 The contraction in output in the first quarter was just a blip. The available activity data suggest that the economy returned to growth in the second quarter. But growth won’t be as strong this year... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Trade war not the only headwind to Asian growth In the event that rising trade tensions lead to a significant fall in US imports from China, it would have a sizeable impact, not just on China, but also on other countries such as Taiwan and Malaysia... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Downbeat businesses pose a downside risk Our relatively bearish view that GDP growth will slow from 2.8% last year to 2.0% next year has always been based on the idea that the end of the migration and housing booms would weaken consumption... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
