India Economics Update Demonetisation: one year on A year after the Indian government’s surprise announcement that the bulk of the country’s bank notes were being cancelled, it is clear that the negative impact on incomes and output was substantial –... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Concessions needed by December David Davis’ appearance in front of the House of Lords’ Select Committee on the European Union provided some clues as to what will be required for the European Council to declare “sufficient progress”... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Japan still being hollowed out? Outward investment from Japan has soared in recent years but this doesn’t seem to have been to the detriment of domestic manufacturing. This isn’t entirely surprising: firms say their main reason for... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Gujarat election an important bellwether for PM Modi In India’s decentralised political system, state elections such as the upcoming votes in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat can have a direct bearing on economic policy. Arguably more significant though, a... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Powell an underwhelming choice to be Fed Chair Some are born great, some achieve greatness and some have greatness thrust upon them. Jerome Powell belongs in the third category. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Powell to be the next Fed... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is London facing a Brexodus? Reports that the Bank of England is assuming 75,000 office-based would shift away from London following Brexit paints a gloomy picture for office markets. However, not only is London less dependent on... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Retail sector on the ropes Despite the sustained strengthening in the Australian labour market, retail sales have been unusually weak in recent months. Admittedly, some of this weakness can be explained by weak price pressures... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Catalonia impasse is not a new euro-zone crisis We think that financial markets are right to take a relaxed view of the constitutional crisis in Catalonia. The economic fallout for Spain itself should be small, and the risks to the euro-zone are... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Tight timetable in focus Comments by the Prime Minister Theresa May and Brexit Secretary David Davis this week have put into focus the tight timeframe in which the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU must be negotiated, and... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What next for Spain and Catalonia? The central Government in Madrid will now attempt to take direct administrative control of Catalonia following the region’s declaration of independence. We suspect that Madrid will achieve its aim of... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Fading reform hopes roil Brazilian markets Financial markets in Brazil have come under pressure over the past week as a split in President Temer’s ruling coalition has cast doubt over important parts of his reform agenda. The trigger for the... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Boycotted election threatens lasting crisis The results of yesterday’s re-run presidential election in Kenya are not in doubt. But signs suggest the country’s political crisis – which has already weighed on the economy and local markets – will... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update One chart to watch for Argentine investors The performance of President Macri’s Cambiemos coalition in last weekend’s legislative elections has given a boost to reform hopes, but we can’t escape the feeling that investors are glossing over the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Initial thoughts on the recapitalisation package A large-scale recapitalisation plan announced yesterday by the government is the most significant measure yet to deal with India’s banking sector malaise. That said, the package will come at a fiscal... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Xi tightens his grip, leaves succession plans unclear As expected, Xi was able to stack China’s top leadership group with close allies. Furthermore, he left the door open to staying on beyond 2022 by not anointing a successor. Unfortunately, there are... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech coalition negotiations likely to be a long drag Events over the past 24 hours have confirmed our view that, while the centre-right ANO party would prevail in the country’s elections, the challenging part will be forming a coalition government... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
