Emerging Markets Economics Update Tail risks to watch for in EMs Our relatively sanguine view on the outlook for EMs over the next 12-18 months has prompted several clients to ask about risks to our forecasts. While risks – both positive and negative – are by their... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Xi enshrined in constitution, signalling his dominance Wang Qishan was not among the members of the new central committee announced today, ending speculation that retirement norms would be broken so that he could keep his position, possibly as a precursor... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Fiscal deficit target under pressure The rapid expansion of the central government’s deficit in the early stages of the fiscal year is a regular occurrence, as revenues tend to get ramped up in latter months. Nevertheless, there are... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) Even though the manufacturing PMI weakened a touch this month, it still points to robust gains in industrial output. However, the survey suggests that price pressures will not strengthen any further... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update “Sufficient progress” by December? It was little surprise that the leaders of the EU27 this week decided that “sufficient progress” on the withdrawal issues has not yet been achieved. But there were encouraging signs that this point... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Race to be next Fed Chair enters closing stages The markets are right to remain relatively sanguine over the upcoming decision on who will be the next Fed Chair, since the Fed’s low rate regime will probably continue with President Donald Trump... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Markets mispricing interest rate moves Market expectations towards South African interest rates have shifted markedly in recent weeks. While a rate cut next month is no-longer likely, we think that the markets have moved too far, and are... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia’s Jokowi failing to deliver on reform Joko Widodo (commonly known as Jokowi) came to power three years ago promising to reinvigorate the struggling economy and raise growth to 7%. Despite some encouraging progress at the start of his... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How worried should we be about corporate scandals? Recent scandals underline that Japan’s corporate governance practices are still poor. Investors often pay a heavy price as shown by the bankruptcy of Takata and the slump in Kobe Steel’s stock prices... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Economy may slow sooner under new government We are not yet changing our forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, interest rates or the dollar due to the news that a Labour-NZ First-Greens coalition led by Jacinda Ardern will form the next... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q3) & Activity (Sep.) Both the official figures and our own China Activity Proxy suggest that growth held up well last quarter, and so did the monthly activity data in September. However, a less supportive fiscal policy... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Xi is prioritising politics over market opening The Party Congress kicked off today with the Report delivered by Xi Jinping. His ability to emphasise his contributions to Communist Party doctrine over those his predecessors hints at a successful... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A look ahead to the Czech elections The centre-right ANO is likely to emerge as the single largest party in Friday’s parliamentary election in the Czech Republic, which may open the door to looser fiscal policy. That said, there are... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deal, no deal or no Brexit? The fifth round of Brexit negotiations passed without much progress being made towards a withdrawal agreement, while the Government appears to have stepped up its plans somewhat for coping with a “no... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Risk of violent crisis escalating Kenya’s post-election legal drama is still rapidly developing. But the latest developments all suggest that the country’s chance of avoiding a violent (and economically painful) crisis is dwindling. 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Positive verdict on Abenomics ahead of snap elections The economy is providing a favourable backdrop to Prime Minister Abe’s efforts to be re-elected on 22nd October. Firms are the most upbeat in a generation following a jump in their profits. Job growth... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
