Brexit deadlock, outlook for real pay brightens

The October European Council meeting – long billed as the moment when a Brexit deal would be done and dusted – has come and gone. And the UK and EU positions look as irreconcilable as ever. While we have not changed the assumption that underpins our central forecast that a deal will be secured (and ratified in Parliament) in early 2019, we put the chances of the UK leaving the EU without a deal in March 2019 at almost 50/50.