Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia and the sanctions threat The escalation of tensions between Saudi Arabia and the US over the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi is likely to weigh on local financial markets, but the Kingdom is in a strong... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Back down to earth in Q3 Japan’s economy was always likely to slow in the third quarter after the surge of output it generated in the second. But the latest data have still been rather disappointing. While investment remains... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro backtracking, Argentina’s austerity Business friendly candidate Jair Bolsonaro looks on course to win the second round of Brazil’s presidential election later this month, but recent noises from the campaign trail have called into... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor USMCA shows Trump can stand down, but headwinds build Agreements signed in recent weeks indicate that the US may be willing to de-escalate trade disputes in order to achieve face-saving deals. Elsewhere, growing economic headwinds suggest that EM export... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan and IMF start talks, equities set for further falls The head of the IMF, Christine Legarde this week set the tone for what are likely to be tough negotiations with Pakistan when she said the Fund would require Pakistan to be “absolutely transparent”... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Markets more hawkish on Hungary, Turkish lira strengthens September’s strong Hungarian inflation data – released on Tuesday – caused investors to raise their interest rate expectations, coming round to our more hawkish view. Meanwhile, a fall in inflation... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nene resigns, PDP picks candidate, Nigeria eyes eurobond The resignation of South Africa’s finance minister boosted the rand this week by demonstrating President Ramaphosa’s firm stance on corruption. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s key opposition party selected its... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly State elections come into focus The Electoral Commission confirmed this week that five state elections will take place before the end of 2018. As ever, these will have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level, and... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Banks still struggling, another look at Japan’s debts The government has indicated that it will be more lenient in applying antimonopoly legislation when assessing regional bank mergers. That should pave the way for a further consolidation of... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Missing Saudi journalist makes politics key economic risk The disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul raises fresh questions about Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s reputation as a reformer and political developments pose a growing... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Which countries are manipulating their currencies? The US Treasury is due to report soon which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. Vietnam is currently the only country in Emerging Asia... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Rapid growth to continue for a while yet GDP growth has surged in recent quarters and, while it has probably peaked, we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of 2019. Thereafter, a focus on fiscal... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Election options come into focus Nigeria’s February 2019 election will offer a stark policy choice between stability under President Muhammadu Buhari and liberalising reforms under opposition leader Atiku Abubakar. While the vote... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How would a deal with the IMF help Pakistan As the price for a deal with Pakistan, the IMF is likely to demand a further sharp tightening in fiscal and monetary policy as well as structural reforms aimed at raising more revenue and improving... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How would the UK economy handle a no deal Brexit? The impact of a no deal Brexit on the economy would depend on what sort of no deal it was, but there would be at least some negative effect in the short term. If the UK left the EU on bad terms, the... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How would the economy weather a no deal Brexit? The impact of a no deal Brexit on the economy would depend on what sort of no deal it was, but there would be at least some negative effect in the short term. If the UK left the EU on bad terms, the... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
