India Economics Update Calculating the potential fiscal cost of loan waivers Announcements of debt write-offs for farmers in a number of Indian states in recent months have grabbed the headlines. In this Update, we attempt to calculate the fiscal cost of the announced waivers... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GST gets political A number of recent tweaks to the new Goods and Services Tax (GST) appear to be attempts to shore up support for the BJP ahead of the upcoming state in election in Gujarat rather than attempts to... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus The Party Congress - a Primer The upcoming Party Congress will deliver a major reshuffle of China’s leadership and determine President Xi Jinping’s ability to implement his policy priorities over the next five years. In this... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Winners & losers in the low growth era All EMs have entered a period of permanently weaker growth but it remains the case that growth rates over the next decade or so will differ significantly between countries. In this Focus we identify... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Catalan situation could still escalate further While Catalonia’s president avoided inflaming tensions with Madrid further in his speech yesterday, as long as the situation drags on there is likely to be some hit to business sentiment. Ultimately... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Aug.) Machinery orders rose further in August and suggest that the recovery in investment spending continued last quarter. With firms facing rising capacity shortages, the outlook for capital expenditure... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would a stronger Xi be good for the economy? Reform implementation is likely to accelerate after the Party Congress, particularly if President Xi emerges in a stronger position. But given Xi’s reluctance to relinquish state control over key... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Election unlikely to revive Abenomics Victory for Prime Minister Abe in this month’s election would keep Japan on the same track it has been on since 2012, pursuing fiscal tightening, loose monetary policy and tentative structural reform... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Catalan political crisis still far from an economic one The Catalan Government could achieve independence without Spain’s consent if a critical mass of people and firms were on board. This would be negative for the rest of Spain. Spain’s government’s debt... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Renewed leadership bid could hamper negotiations The prospect of a renewed Conservative Party leadership bid could have a de-stabilising effect on negotiations next week and, if it does happen, could have a material impact on the sort of Brexit that... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What would Yurinomics mean for Japan? Yuriko Koike’s Party of Hope has pledged to rely less on loose fiscal and monetary policy if it wins the upcoming election. But in practice its proposals, which include delaying the sales tax hike... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Turning the corner Growth across the Middle East and North Africa has slowed further this year, but it should recover in 2018 and 2019. In the Gulf, the drag on GDP growth from this year’s oil production cuts will fade... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will other regions push for independence? After Catalonia’s vote, it seems unlikely that other Spanish regions will soon push for independence. But in Italy, later this month two regions are set to hold referendums aimed at achieving greater... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Catalonia: What next? Despite the “yes” vote in yesterday’s independence referendum in Catalonia, there appears to be little chance that the region will secede from Spain in the coming months. We think the most likely... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that growth remained robust in the third quarter. Capacity and staff shortages are the most pronounced since the early 1990s and the survey suggests that price pressures... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update “Sufficient progress” still not made While Theresa May’s speech in Florence appears to have had a positive effect on the Brexit negotiations, it still looks unlikely that “sufficient progress” on the withdrawal agreement will be made by... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
