Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Missing Saudi journalist makes politics key economic risk The disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul raises fresh questions about Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s reputation as a reformer and political developments pose a growing... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Which countries are manipulating their currencies? The US Treasury is due to report soon which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. Vietnam is currently the only country in Emerging Asia... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Rapid growth to continue for a while yet GDP growth has surged in recent quarters and, while it has probably peaked, we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of 2019. Thereafter, a focus on fiscal... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Election options come into focus Nigeria’s February 2019 election will offer a stark policy choice between stability under President Muhammadu Buhari and liberalising reforms under opposition leader Atiku Abubakar. While the vote... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How would a deal with the IMF help Pakistan As the price for a deal with Pakistan, the IMF is likely to demand a further sharp tightening in fiscal and monetary policy as well as structural reforms aimed at raising more revenue and improving... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How would the UK economy handle a no deal Brexit? The impact of a no deal Brexit on the economy would depend on what sort of no deal it was, but there would be at least some negative effect in the short term. If the UK left the EU on bad terms, the... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How would the economy weather a no deal Brexit? The impact of a no deal Brexit on the economy would depend on what sort of no deal it was, but there would be at least some negative effect in the short term. If the UK left the EU on bad terms, the... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bolsonaro boost to hit political realities The strong showing for Jair Bolsonaro and his party in yesterday’s general election in Brazil has increased the chances of pro-market reform. This is likely to prompt an initial rally in local markets... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly The Bolsonaro boost, Banxico’s dissenter The sharp rally in Brazilian asset prices this week appears to reflect growing expectations that right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro will win the presidential election, the first round of which is on... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Growth up, unjustified Brexit optimism, the end of austerity? The latest evidence points to GDP growth picking up from 0.4% in Q2 to 0.5% in Q3. That would make it the strongest quarter since the end of 2016. Even so, the economy would still be on track for a... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s markets look too sanguine on political risk The rally in Brazilian markets this week on polls showing a rise in support for right-wing presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro suggests that the political risk premium being priced in has declined... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: the new Nafta, Amlo and receding policy risks The announcement of a trilateral trade deal with the US and Canada removes one major source of uncertainty surrounding Mexico’s outlook. The focus will increasingly shift onto the policies of... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) The deterioration in business conditions in the Q3 Tankan supports our view that GDP growth slowed last quarter. That said, firms remain optimistic about the outlook for capital spending and the... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Labour true to form, Brexit drag on investment to continue The Labour Party announced a new policy at their conference this week that would see companies transfer some of their shares to employees. While this policy in isolation might not be too damaging for... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly African Rates: Loosening cycle spluttering to a halt Central banks across Africa held their rates unchanged this week, strengthening our view that the region’s long loosening cycle has now come to an end. Nigeria’s election cycle will get into gear next... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget deficit, Royal Commission and election risk The shrinking budget deficit gives the Coalition government a bit more fiscal ammunition to deploy ahead of Australia’s next Federal election, while there is no way of knowing at this stage how the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
