Europe Economics Weekly Spain can cope without Rajoy but Italian politics still a worry In any other week, the imposition of tariffs on the EU by the US would have taken centre stage. But amid the political and market turmoil in Italy and the downfall of Spain’s government, this was no... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Geopolitics more likely to affect ECB than the Fed For now, we don’t expect the geopolitical developments to alter the behaviour of the major central banks. Provided that the political crisis in Italy does not flare up again, we think the ECB is... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Spending (Q1) Today’s capital spending confirmed that investment was sluggish last quarter and suggest that we won’t see major revisions in the second estimate of Q1 GDP. 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How could Italy’s problems affect Emerging Europe? Recent developments in Italy do not pose an immediate threat to economies in Emerging Europe but a significant escalation in the crisis would cause problems for countries in the region, particularly... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Banks outside the euro-zone not too exposed to Italy The direct exposure to Italy of banks located outside the euro-zone is small compared to that of their peers based in other euro-zone countries. This offers some reassurance that any fallout from... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) Industrial production didn’t rise as much in April as most had anticipated. But the economy should still have returned to growth this quarter. 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will turmoil in Italy spark contagion? The fallout from the latest political turmoil in Italy has so far been contained, with limited impact on other euro-zone countries’ financial markets. There are good reasons to expect this to remain... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Markets drop as Trump pulls out of Iran’s nuclear deal The US administration’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal, coming alongside the recent EM sell-off, means that it has been a terrible month for financial markets across the Middle East and... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six key questions and answers about Italy We have written extensively about political and economic developments in Italy in our Europe and Markets services. (See a list of relevant publications on page 2.) But as the events of the past few... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Key questions about Italy After the President refused to appoint a eurosceptic finance minister, Italy is heading for a fresh election. Provided that Five Star Movement and the League do not call for a referendum on euro... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Duque on course to inherit strengthening economy The victory for centre-right candidate Iván Duque in the first round of Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday was largely expected and, as such, has had little impact on local financial markets... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Heightened uncertainty in Malaysia post-election In a massive political upset, the incumbent Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition led by Najib Razak was ousted by a resurgent opposition led by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad in Malaysia’s 14 th... 28th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update A snap election would be good for Spain Spain’s Government is teetering and a snap election is on the cards. Given the rise of populists in Italy, an increase in political uncertainty in Spain seems concerning. But while the situation is... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Pro-business reform in Africa: Angola stands out Hopes that President Cyril Ramaphosa will reform South Africa’s economy have grabbed the headlines. But reforms are also underway elsewhere; recent pro-business moves in Angola show the most potential... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will ageing result in a surge in the budget deficit? New projections suggest that social security spending could rise by 8% of GDP by 2040. The government has already increased social security contributions in recent years and there is some scope to... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bankruptcy code finding its feet After a few teething problems in its early stages, India’s new bankruptcy code is now making a significant difference to the speed at which bankruptcy cases are resolved and the amount that creditors... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
