The decision by Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) to seemingly postpone Mexico’s deep water oil auctions for three years is unlikely to have a major bearing on oil production in the near term. But it is the clearest sign yet that Amlo intends to stop the much-vaunted energy reform in its tracks. Over the longer term, we estimate that this would shave around 0.2-0.3%-pts off potential GDP growth.
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