China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) After accelerating in recent months, broad credit growth slowed slightly in November. We think this marks the start of a slowdown in credit growth as the PBOC turns its attention to tackling financial... 9th December 2020 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to keep supporting economy during recovery Policymakers at the ECB have already flagged that they will extend their support for the economy at their monetary policy meeting next Thursday, primarily by “recalibrating” the Pandemic Emergency... 3rd December 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update DM banks able to withstand higher defaults next year In Q3, the balance sheets of developed market banks were in good shape and credit losses stayed ultra-low. Defaults are likely to rise as policy support recedes, but we think the banks are well-placed... 3rd December 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Chances of an ECB deposit rate cut look slim The ECB has said it is prepared to reduce its deposit rate further below zero. However, since any economic benefits would be small and it would be politically unpalatable to some on the Governing... 1st December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Oct.) October’s money and credit data showed that the mini-boom in the housing market continued, but a fall in consumer credit suggests that consumer spending was already faltering before lockdown was... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Oct.) October’s money and credit data showed that the mini-boom in the housing market continued, but a fall in consumer credit suggests that consumer spending was already faltering before lockdown was... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Labour markets prove resilient We have been arguing for some time that the unemployment rate would not rise as much as most believed in either Australia or New Zealand. We remain confident in those forecasts. Admittedly, the... 30th November 2020 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account points to December package The account of the last ECB Governing Council meeting confirms that policymakers were becoming more concerned about the outlook for both inflation and GDP growth in late October and that they were... 26th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Lending growth is likely to pick up in the final two months of the year as firms again take advantage of loan guarantees to replace lost revenues during lockdowns. And the ECB looks set to support... 26th November 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Lockdown pushes recovery into 2022 The outlook for most commercial property sectors was already fragile and this has only been dampened by the second lockdown. Although transactions are set to pick up next year, we think property... 20th November 2020 · 25 mins read
China Economics Weekly Credit risk awakens from COVID-19 hibernation With output now back to its pre-virus path and the labour market returning to health, policymakers appear to have decided that the time has come to instil a bit more discipline into credit markets. By... 20th November 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly A dose of reality Newsflow continues to be dominated by the breakthroughs in the development of effective COVID-19 vaccines. But the collapse of Lakshmi Vilas Bank this week is another stark reminder of the extreme... 20th November 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Growth in narrow measures of the money supply has continued to edge higher as demand and saving deposits continue to accumulate but, with growth in broader measures of money and bank lending dropping... 17th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Only light-touch restrictions on horizon for now Japan is in the midst of a third wave of COVID-19. Daily infections have already reached their previous early-August peak. Only the Hokkaido Government has responded with countermeasures so far... 17th November 2020 · 10 mins read
Africa Economics Focus Debt relief: the state of play and what’s next There has been much less progress towards debt relief for African economies than many had hoped. And governments’ diverse array of creditors means that the “Common Framework” recently unveiled by the... 16th November 2020 · 19 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) Broad credit growth hit is highest level in nearly three years as faster growth in direct financing and shadow credit more than offset slower bank lending. We think this acceleration will continue... 11th November 2020 · 2 mins read
