Capital Daily Assessing the market implications of slower growth in China We think slowing economic growth in China – highlighted again by today’s economic data – has several key implications for the country’s financial markets. 17th May 2021 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Apr.) Year-on-year growth on all indicators dropped back last month. This partly reflects a less flattering base for comparison. But current momentum was also a bit softer, especially for retail sales. We... 17th May 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Currency markets weighing the prospects for recovery The unexpected jump in US inflation data pushed the greenback higher against most currencies this week and may a harbinger of things to come – we continue to expect the dollar to appreciate this year... 14th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly The price rally may be starting to run out of steam Aside from coal and natural gas, the prices of most commodities fell this week in tandem with the declines in global equity markets. Investors are concerned about rising inflation, particularly in the... 14th May 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC is right to be relaxed about inflation Producer prices are rising rapidly as the extraordinary surge in global demand for consumer durables during the pandemic has led to bottlenecks in supply. But the People’s Bank is right to not be too... 14th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Taking stock of risky asset valuations In this Update, we take a look at the valuations of a broad range of the “risky” assets that we cover on our Asset Allocation service. We think that six key points stand out. 14th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Housing boom to test the Riksbank’s dovish resolve The Riksbank will look through the recent pick-up in consumer price inflation in Sweden, which rose above the Bank’s 2% target in April for the first time since May 2019. After all, the energy-driven... 13th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Euro-zone corporate credit spreads may fall a little further While we don’t think there is much scope for corporate credit spreads generally to narrow much further from here, in our view spreads in the euro-zone could fall a bit more than those in the US or the... 13th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE property sector, Tunisia’s COVID crisis, remittances Recent figures suggest that the downturn in the UAE’s real estate sector has bottomed out but we still hold concerns that increasing supply will exacerbate overcapacity and put further strain on banks... 13th May 2021 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Worsening affordability hits home buying sentiment Mortgage rates have edged down since the end of March, but that didn’t prevent a fall in the share of households who see now as a good time to buy a home to a record low in April. House price growth... 12th May 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We think the US dollar will strengthen again before long We don’t expect the recent weakness in the US dollar to persist. On the contrary, we think that it will strengthen against most major currencies as economic growth in the US outpaces that in the rest... 12th May 2021 · 6 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) Both bank lending and broad credit dropped off more sharply than most expected in April. Apart from during last year’s lockdown, loan growth hasn’t been this slow in nearly two decades. 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the fallout from Colombia’s fiscal drama Recent protests have pushed Colombia’s government away from the fiscal reforms that are needed to reduce the public debt ratio in the coming years. It’s therefore likely that the sovereign will lose... 10th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Mar./Q1 2021) The drop in real retail sales in Q1 suggests that the recovery in consumption slowed last quarter. And with the vaccination drive still slow, we think that consumption will only return to pre-virus... 10th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect gains in EM Asia stock markets to remain small We don’t think stock markets in emerging Asia will come roaring back to life any time soon, and forecast relatively small increases in equity indices there over the next few years. 7th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly (Pe)Ace out, budget balancing act in SA, vaccine patents The suspension of Ace Magashule, the Secretary General of South Africa’s ruling ANC party is likely to go some way in strengthening the hand of President Cyril Ramaphosa in an intra-party fight. But... 7th May 2021 · 5 mins read
