India Chart Pack Cautious optimism as 2020 ends COVID-19 has ravaged India’s economy in 2020, and GDP is all but certain to have suffered its largest slump on record this year. But there are reasons for optimism as the year draws to a close... 23rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Go To Travel suspension will weigh on consumption PM Suga’s decision on Tuesday to halt the Go To Travel campaign for two weeks from 28th December may put the recovery in services spending into temporary reverse. It comes after authorities in Tokyo... 17th December 2020 · 10 mins read
Canada Economics Focus What if households unleash their savings? Due to lower spending and the generosity of government transfers, households are set to save $200bn more in 2020 than in 2019. With that rise equivalent to 14% of consumption, there are upside risks... 15th December 2020 · 11 mins read
India Economics Weekly Banks will get left behind in the recovery An emergency approval of a COVID-19 vaccine in India would reaffirm our view that the economic outlook has brightened. But while some have also turned more optimistic on banking sector prospects, we... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch SNB & Norges Bank set to maintain the status quo We do not expect the Swiss National Bank or the Norges Bank to throw up any festive surprises at their final policy announcements of the year next Thursday (17th December). Vaccines point to brighter... 10th December 2020 · 6 mins read
BoE Watch No further stimulus, unless there is a no deal Brexit The next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Thursday 17 th December should be less eventful than the last one. Indeed, if our more optimistic economic forecasts are even close to being right... 10th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian banks unlikely to falter The capital ratios of Australian banks may decline a bit as loan deferrals come to an end and other policy support is withdrawn. But with capital ratios having almost doubled since the GFC and... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) After accelerating in recent months, broad credit growth slowed slightly in November. We think this marks the start of a slowdown in credit growth as the PBOC turns its attention to tackling financial... 9th December 2020 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to keep supporting economy during recovery Policymakers at the ECB have already flagged that they will extend their support for the economy at their monetary policy meeting next Thursday, primarily by “recalibrating” the Pandemic Emergency... 3rd December 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update DM banks able to withstand higher defaults next year In Q3, the balance sheets of developed market banks were in good shape and credit losses stayed ultra-low. Defaults are likely to rise as policy support recedes, but we think the banks are well-placed... 3rd December 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Chances of an ECB deposit rate cut look slim The ECB has said it is prepared to reduce its deposit rate further below zero. However, since any economic benefits would be small and it would be politically unpalatable to some on the Governing... 1st December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Oct.) October’s money and credit data showed that the mini-boom in the housing market continued, but a fall in consumer credit suggests that consumer spending was already faltering before lockdown was... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Oct.) October’s money and credit data showed that the mini-boom in the housing market continued, but a fall in consumer credit suggests that consumer spending was already faltering before lockdown was... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Labour markets prove resilient We have been arguing for some time that the unemployment rate would not rise as much as most believed in either Australia or New Zealand. We remain confident in those forecasts. Admittedly, the... 30th November 2020 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account points to December package The account of the last ECB Governing Council meeting confirms that policymakers were becoming more concerned about the outlook for both inflation and GDP growth in late October and that they were... 26th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Lending growth is likely to pick up in the final two months of the year as firms again take advantage of loan guarantees to replace lost revenues during lockdowns. And the ECB looks set to support... 26th November 2020 · 4 mins read
