Emerging Markets Economics Focus Could the crisis lead to higher EM inflation? Large output gaps look set to keep inflation low in most emerging markets over the next few years. But further out, we think that worrying public debt trajectories in some places (Brazil and South... 13th October 2020 · 15 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Rising labour costs to prevent slump in inflation Inflation has held up better than we had anticipated in recent months. The surge in spare capacity suggests that it could weaken more sharply as social distancing measures are relaxed. But we only... 12th October 2020 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian inflation and the IMF, GDP data, Tunisian debt Egyptian inflation data for September, due next week, are likely to be low enough to result in the IMF encouraging the central bank to cut interest rate cuts. Elsewhere, the raft of recently-released... 8th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Central banks to resume easing cycles soon With the virus under control in most of the region, Emerging Asia is bouncing back from the crisis faster than other parts of the world. But the pace of recovery is uneven. China is leading the way... 8th October 2020 · 36 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Recovery could surprise to the upside Japan’s success in containing the virus without imposing draconian restrictions on activity should enable a faster return to pre-virus levels of output than in many major economies. We expect GDP to... 8th October 2020 · 21 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai’s debts still a major cause for concern Fears over Dubai’s debts have re-emerged in recent weeks and, in this Update, we provide revised estimates of the Emirate’s debt pile. The short point is that the debts of Dubai’s government and of... 6th October 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Dire outlook will prompt further monetary easing The continued rapid spread of COVID-19 in India and the need for prolonged containment measures has plunged the economy into a double-digit contraction this year. A tepid fiscal response means the... 1st October 2020 · 19 mins read
Long Run Focus The private sector costs of COVID-19 The immediate costs of the COVID crisis will be shouldered more by governments than the private sector. However, as fiscal support recedes in the coming years, a greater share of the costs will be... 30th September 2020 · 31 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Victoria restrictions didn’t hit as hard as initially feared The surge in case numbers due to the second wave in Melbourne has been brought under control with new daily cases falling back towards zero. Heavy restrictions on activity still remain in place in... 30th September 2020 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of EM financial conditions EM financial conditions have tightened a little in recent weeks, although only in Turkey does this threaten to become a significant headwind to growth. Elsewhere, conditions remain very loose but the... 29th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Growth concerns mounting in Nigeria Nigeria is facing an uphill battle to breathe life into its economic recovery. Following a sharp 6.1% y/y fall in GDP in Q2, more recent figures suggest that activity remains muted. Admittedly, Google... 29th September 2020 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Aug.) While the resurgence in the housing market continued in August, consumer credit barely rose. And the darkening clouds on the economic horizon may tempt some households to start to rein in spending in... 29th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bankruptcy phoney war coming to an end Having instructed many firms to cease trading during the lockdowns, governments understandably pulled out all the stops to prevent them from going under. However, we expect this support to be... 28th September 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Government bonds to rally in the coming years FTSE Russell yesterday announced that it will include China in its World Government Bond Index (WGBI). The resulting shift in passive funds could more than double foreign inflows into Chinese... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s cepo, Brazil’s fiscal saga continues The tightening of capital controls (“ el cepo”) in Argentina will give the central bank some breathing room as it attempts to manage the peso over the coming months. But Argentina’s experience using... 18th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Policymakers to keep their powder dry next week The three scheduled policy meetings next week are unlikely to result in any changes to policy settings. However, we would not be surprised to see the Norges Bank bring forward the projected start-date... 18th September 2020 · 4 mins read
