UK Economics Update Negative interest rates – will they or won’t they? While we wouldn’t rule out negative interest rates being used a bit further down the line, over the next 6-12 months we think 10-year gilt yields will be kept close to 0.15% by the Bank of England... 20th October 2020 · 7 mins read
Record low inventory to weigh on home sales The main news this week was that home sales hit a record high in September. As inventory is at a record low, sales are set to moderate from here, but prices should keep rising. 16th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly NCB-Samba merger, Oman VAT, OPEC+ deal The merger between National Commercial Bank and Samba is the latest effort to consolidate the Saudi banking sector and, with the crisis likely to weigh on profitability, it may be a sign of things to... 15th October 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q3) Mortgage availability saw a modest improvement Q3, but not enough to reverse the large fall seen in Q2. Meanwhile, credit availability to commercial property fell sharply during the quarter, and... 15th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Huge policy support paves way for strong recovery Australia and New Zealand have had far greater success in containing the virus than most other large advanced economies. Coupled with huge fiscal support, that means that the recovery in economic... 15th October 2020 · 24 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) Broad credit growth hit is highest level in nearly three years. We think this acceleration should continue until early next year. 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Could the crisis lead to higher EM inflation? Large output gaps look set to keep inflation low in most emerging markets over the next few years. But further out, we think that worrying public debt trajectories in some places (Brazil and South... 13th October 2020 · 15 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Rising labour costs to prevent slump in inflation Inflation has held up better than we had anticipated in recent months. The surge in spare capacity suggests that it could weaken more sharply as social distancing measures are relaxed. But we only... 12th October 2020 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian inflation and the IMF, GDP data, Tunisian debt Egyptian inflation data for September, due next week, are likely to be low enough to result in the IMF encouraging the central bank to cut interest rate cuts. Elsewhere, the raft of recently-released... 8th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Central banks to resume easing cycles soon With the virus under control in most of the region, Emerging Asia is bouncing back from the crisis faster than other parts of the world. But the pace of recovery is uneven. China is leading the way... 8th October 2020 · 36 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Recovery could surprise to the upside Japan’s success in containing the virus without imposing draconian restrictions on activity should enable a faster return to pre-virus levels of output than in many major economies. We expect GDP to... 8th October 2020 · 21 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai’s debts still a major cause for concern Fears over Dubai’s debts have re-emerged in recent weeks and, in this Update, we provide revised estimates of the Emirate’s debt pile. The short point is that the debts of Dubai’s government and of... 6th October 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Dire outlook will prompt further monetary easing The continued rapid spread of COVID-19 in India and the need for prolonged containment measures has plunged the economy into a double-digit contraction this year. A tepid fiscal response means the... 1st October 2020 · 19 mins read
Long Run Focus The private sector costs of COVID-19 The immediate costs of the COVID crisis will be shouldered more by governments than the private sector. However, as fiscal support recedes in the coming years, a greater share of the costs will be... 30th September 2020 · 31 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Victoria restrictions didn’t hit as hard as initially feared The surge in case numbers due to the second wave in Melbourne has been brought under control with new daily cases falling back towards zero. Heavy restrictions on activity still remain in place in... 30th September 2020 · 10 mins read
