UK Housing Credit Conditions Survey (Q1 2021) Robust house price growth and the prospect of a strong economic recovery have caused banks’ risk appetite to return. As a result, banks expect to increase the availability of high LTV loans and reduce... 15th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Revisiting the risks in the UAE’s banking sector The UAE banking sector’s non-performing loan ratio has hit its highest level since 2005, although banks’ high level of profitability coming into the crisis has helped to shield them so far. And strong... 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s banks weathering the storm The COVID-19 crisis has caused bad loans at South Africa’s banks to rise, but the impact so far has not been as bad as feared. That said, the hit to profitability in the banking sector, combined with... 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Mar.) After an uptick in February, the slowdown in credit growth resumed in March. Hawkish signals in the government’s work report suggest that the deceleration will continue as policymakers focus on... 12th April 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC window guidance, census data gems The People’s Bank (PBOC) has struck a dovish tone in its recent public statements, parroting calls by China’s leadership for lower real lending rates. But media reports suggest that the PBOC is taking... 9th April 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: capital controls would probably be ineffective Turkey’s large external vulnerabilities mean that aggressive rate cuts by the central bank (CBRT) would run the risk of sharp and destabilising falls in the lira. A probable next step by policymakers... 8th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asian central banks in no rush to raise interest rates Unlike in some emerging markets, central banks across Emerging Asia are in no rush to tighten monetary policy. External factors won’t compel policymakers to tighten, and with inflationary pressures... 30th March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Feb.) The COVID-19 lockdown pattern of households paying back credit and investing in property but small businesses loading up on debt continued in February. We doubt much changed in March, but this pattern... 29th March 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly NPL floodgates open, new FX forecasts, state elections With the Supreme Court this week lifting its ban on banks classifying delinquent loans as non-performing, the last major extra-ordinary banking sector measure has been unwound and recorded NPLs are... 26th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s banks are a major cause for concern The abrupt sacking of Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) governor on Friday has triggered sharp falls in the lira and a tightening of external financing conditions. The banking sector is a key source of... 22nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) After four months of consecutive declines, broad credit growth accelerated in February. But we think the slowdown in lending will resume before long given the hawkish signals out of the National... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Jan.) The COVID-19 lockdown pattern of households paying back credit and investing in property but small businesses loading up on debt was repeated in January. And we expect a continuation of these trends... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Wage growth near its trough Labour markets in both countries have tightened in recent months. In Australia, the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 7.1% to just 6.4% in January. And other measures of spare capacity have... 1st March 2021 · 11 mins read
India Chart Pack Activity returning to pre-virus levels Indian GDP data due to be released on Friday are likely to show only a small contraction in annual growth in Q4 2020, and high-frequency indicators point to a relatively strong start to 2021. Indeed... 24th February 2021 · 9 mins read
Japan Chart Pack GDP will soon be back at pre-virus path The strong rise in output in Q4 2020 to just 1.2% below Q4 2019 levels bolsters our view that Japan’s economy will be back to the level it reached before the tax hike and close to its pre-virus path... 22nd February 2021 · 10 mins read
