India Economics Weekly Signs of financial stress emerge The sharp widening in credit spreads over the past few days will have concerned policymakers and - like last year - a forceful response is likely if further signs of financial stress emerge. But while... 30th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Can banks withstand rising corporate defaults? The pandemic has lifted the ratio of corporate debt to GDP to the highest level since the late-1990s and the Bank of Japan now fears that defaults could rise sharply in struggling sectors. However... 29th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economic recovery facilitates house price surge House prices are now surging in both countries. House price cycles in the Australian housing market tend to lag those in New Zealand a little, which is consistent with the forward indicators pointing... 29th April 2021 · 11 mins read
China Economic Outlook Rebound levelling off After treading water in Q1, activity should pick up again this quarter following the relaxation of domestic travel restrictions. But growth will be more modest than most expect over the next couple of... 28th April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus restrictions start to bite Our in-house mobility tracker suggests that the surge in virus infections in India is now weighing on activity. This is likely to become more pronounced as the outbreak has become more widespread... 21st April 2021 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Higher capital weights won’t stymie credit growth New Zealand’s experience suggests that the planned increase in risk-weightings for investor housing loans in Australia won’t act as a big deterrent to bank lending. If investor loan growth started to... 19th April 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Investors reassess state support Investors had previously shrugged off governance problems at Huarong, China’s largest distressed debt manager. The assumption had always been that the firm’s ties to the Ministry of Finance would... 16th April 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Credit Conditions Survey (Q1 2021) Robust house price growth and the prospect of a strong economic recovery have caused banks’ risk appetite to return. As a result, banks expect to increase the availability of high LTV loans and reduce... 15th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Revisiting the risks in the UAE’s banking sector The UAE banking sector’s non-performing loan ratio has hit its highest level since 2005, although banks’ high level of profitability coming into the crisis has helped to shield them so far. And strong... 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s banks weathering the storm The COVID-19 crisis has caused bad loans at South Africa’s banks to rise, but the impact so far has not been as bad as feared. That said, the hit to profitability in the banking sector, combined with... 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Mar.) After an uptick in February, the slowdown in credit growth resumed in March. Hawkish signals in the government’s work report suggest that the deceleration will continue as policymakers focus on... 12th April 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC window guidance, census data gems The People’s Bank (PBOC) has struck a dovish tone in its recent public statements, parroting calls by China’s leadership for lower real lending rates. But media reports suggest that the PBOC is taking... 9th April 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: capital controls would probably be ineffective Turkey’s large external vulnerabilities mean that aggressive rate cuts by the central bank (CBRT) would run the risk of sharp and destabilising falls in the lira. A probable next step by policymakers... 8th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asian central banks in no rush to raise interest rates Unlike in some emerging markets, central banks across Emerging Asia are in no rush to tighten monetary policy. External factors won’t compel policymakers to tighten, and with inflationary pressures... 30th March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Feb.) The COVID-19 lockdown pattern of households paying back credit and investing in property but small businesses loading up on debt continued in February. We doubt much changed in March, but this pattern... 29th March 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly NPL floodgates open, new FX forecasts, state elections With the Supreme Court this week lifting its ban on banks classifying delinquent loans as non-performing, the last major extra-ordinary banking sector measure has been unwound and recorded NPLs are... 26th March 2021 · 4 mins read
