Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s banks are a major cause for concern The abrupt sacking of Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) governor on Friday has triggered sharp falls in the lira and a tightening of external financing conditions. The banking sector is a key source of... 22nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) After four months of consecutive declines, broad credit growth accelerated in February. But we think the slowdown in lending will resume before long given the hawkish signals out of the National... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Jan.) The COVID-19 lockdown pattern of households paying back credit and investing in property but small businesses loading up on debt was repeated in January. And we expect a continuation of these trends... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Wage growth near its trough Labour markets in both countries have tightened in recent months. In Australia, the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 7.1% to just 6.4% in January. And other measures of spare capacity have... 1st March 2021 · 11 mins read
India Chart Pack Activity returning to pre-virus levels Indian GDP data due to be released on Friday are likely to show only a small contraction in annual growth in Q4 2020, and high-frequency indicators point to a relatively strong start to 2021. Indeed... 24th February 2021 · 9 mins read
Japan Chart Pack GDP will soon be back at pre-virus path The strong rise in output in Q4 2020 to just 1.2% below Q4 2019 levels bolsters our view that Japan’s economy will be back to the level it reached before the tax hike and close to its pre-virus path... 22nd February 2021 · 10 mins read
US Economics Update Student debt forgiveness would do little for economy Even if a significant share of the $1.6trn of student loan debt owed to the Federal government was forgiven, it would provide only a limited boost to activity while driving a potentially sizable... 18th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Challenges of big central bank balance sheets are manageable One legacy of the pandemic is a huge expansion in central banks’ balance sheets. Fears that this will automatically boost inflation are overdone. So, too, are worries that central banks will provoke a... 17th February 2021 · 25 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to start raising rates later this year We forecast the Norges Bank to be the first advanced central bank to begin raising interest rates, in the second half of this year. This will further bolster the krone, which we expect to be the best... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch Bank to continue unwinding stimulus Economic data since the Bank’s last meeting have shown the New Zealand economy recovering at a remarkable pace. The case for further monetary stimulus is therefore weak. As such, we expect the Bank... 17th February 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The continued surge in growth of narrow measures of the money supply underline that the economy is awash with liquidity, but that will not trigger a surge in price inflation when growth in the broader... 16th February 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Credit growth in China dropped back further last month due to a broad-based slowdown in both bank and non-bank lending. Credit is likely to continue decelerating as the PBOC focuses on reining in... 9th February 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly The benefits and limitations of a “bad bank” The creation of a “bad bank” in India - for which plans were briefly discussed in the Budget announcement - would help restructure the loans of the most heavily-indebted firms and facilitate a clean... 5th February 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Easing credit standards to support consumer recovery The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey reveals that access to credit is improving for consumers, which will support an acceleration in consumption growth this year. 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Dec.) The easing in the COVID-19 restrictions meant that businesses did not rush as fast to take on more debt in December. And with households investing in property and strengthening their balance sheets... 1st February 2021 · 3 mins read
