US Economics Update Student debt forgiveness would do little for economy Even if a significant share of the $1.6trn of student loan debt owed to the Federal government was forgiven, it would provide only a limited boost to activity while driving a potentially sizable... 18th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Challenges of big central bank balance sheets are manageable One legacy of the pandemic is a huge expansion in central banks’ balance sheets. Fears that this will automatically boost inflation are overdone. So, too, are worries that central banks will provoke a... 17th February 2021 · 25 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to start raising rates later this year We forecast the Norges Bank to be the first advanced central bank to begin raising interest rates, in the second half of this year. This will further bolster the krone, which we expect to be the best... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch Bank to continue unwinding stimulus Economic data since the Bank’s last meeting have shown the New Zealand economy recovering at a remarkable pace. The case for further monetary stimulus is therefore weak. As such, we expect the Bank... 17th February 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The continued surge in growth of narrow measures of the money supply underline that the economy is awash with liquidity, but that will not trigger a surge in price inflation when growth in the broader... 16th February 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Credit growth in China dropped back further last month due to a broad-based slowdown in both bank and non-bank lending. Credit is likely to continue decelerating as the PBOC focuses on reining in... 9th February 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly The benefits and limitations of a “bad bank” The creation of a “bad bank” in India - for which plans were briefly discussed in the Budget announcement - would help restructure the loans of the most heavily-indebted firms and facilitate a clean... 5th February 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Easing credit standards to support consumer recovery The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey reveals that access to credit is improving for consumers, which will support an acceleration in consumption growth this year. 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Dec.) The easing in the COVID-19 restrictions meant that businesses did not rush as fast to take on more debt in December. And with households investing in property and strengthening their balance sheets... 1st February 2021 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Surge in interbank rates a hawkish signal from PBOC Short-term funding costs for banks have risen sharply during the past couple of weeks. The 7-day depository repo rate (DR007), which has been flagged by the PBOC as a key benchmark and focus of... 29th January 2021 · 13 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2020) Very strong demand allowed banks to maintain tight lending standards in Q4 2020 while still increasing mortgage lending volumes. Of course, buyer demand is likely to drop sharply when the stamp duty... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The surge in narrow money growth is entirely due to regulatory changes and a substitution out of savings accounts due to low interest rates. Our measure of M3 shows broad money growth has slowed... 20th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Taper talk premature Aside from acknowledging the weakness in the incoming economic data in the policy statement, we expect the Fed to leave its policy settings unchanged at next week’s FOMC meeting. The additional fiscal... 20th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4 2020) The Q4 Bank Lending Survey revealed that the demand for bank credit fell at the end of last year, and banks tightened their lending standards as they became more worried about the economic outlook... 19th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Surge in growth will allow central banks to step back The recovery in GDP and employment in both Australia and New Zealand is set to continue surprising to the upside. As such, we expect the RBA to stop its QE programme in April. Meanwhile, we estimate... 18th January 2021 · 24 mins read
India Economics Weekly Investment recovering, but headwinds remain The latest monthly activity data suggest that investment growth recovered further in Q4. The rebound should continue over the coming months, but is likely to slow in the second half of the year as... 15th January 2021 · 3 mins read
