Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia and the IMF, April’s PMIs, Hajj restrictions Tunisia’s government has jump started talks with the IMF over a fresh financing package but it may prove difficult to secure. If the talks fall apart, Tunisia would be pushed towards a messy balance... 6th May 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q1) The RICS Construction Survey points to a rise in output at the start of this year, with the highest workload reading since Q1 2016. Looking ahead, respondents are more optimistic about the outlook but... 6th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia - Pandemic unlikely to result in long-term scarring The closure of the border will reduce Australia’s potential output by around 2.5%. But this will be partly offset by higher productivity growth due to increased usage of technology and more employees... 6th May 2021 · 17 mins read
UK Economics A wave of insolvencies is coming, but not a tsunami There will be a surge in business insolvencies once the government’s moratoriums expire at the end of June and September. But a strong economic recovery should ensure that fewer businesses go bust... 5th May 2021 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) Despite a small fall in mortgage interest rates, home purchase and refinance demand edged back in April. The reopening of the economy and easing credit conditions will provide some support for housing... 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI ramps up virus response In an unscheduled announcement today, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das unveiled an array of measures aimed at mitigating the economic and financial impact of India’s virus crisis. This Update takes stock... 5th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Underperformance of E-Z vs US equities won’t last in our view While we expect the economic recovery in the euro-zone to be slower than that in the US, we still think that euro-zone equities will outperform their US peers in the remainder of the year. 4th May 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Loosening credit standards will support activity The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey shows that lending standards are being eased across the board, which will help keep consumption and investment growth solid even as support from fiscal... 4th May 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Mar.) March’s money and credit data provides some signs that a consumer revival was underway even before the COVID-19 restrictions were eased in mid-April. But even if consumers’ willingness to borrow... 4th May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Signs of financial stress emerge The sharp widening in credit spreads over the past few days will have concerned policymakers and - like last year - a forceful response is likely if further signs of financial stress emerge. But while... 30th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Can banks withstand rising corporate defaults? The pandemic has lifted the ratio of corporate debt to GDP to the highest level since the late-1990s and the Bank of Japan now fears that defaults could rise sharply in struggling sectors. However... 29th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economic recovery facilitates house price surge House prices are now surging in both countries. House price cycles in the Australian housing market tend to lag those in New Zealand a little, which is consistent with the forward indicators pointing... 29th April 2021 · 11 mins read
China Economic Outlook Rebound levelling off After treading water in Q1, activity should pick up again this quarter following the relaxation of domestic travel restrictions. But growth will be more modest than most expect over the next couple of... 28th April 2021 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus restrictions start to bite Our in-house mobility tracker suggests that the surge in virus infections in India is now weighing on activity. This is likely to become more pronounced as the outbreak has become more widespread... 21st April 2021 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Higher capital weights won’t stymie credit growth New Zealand’s experience suggests that the planned increase in risk-weightings for investor housing loans in Australia won’t act as a big deterrent to bank lending. If investor loan growth started to... 19th April 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Investors reassess state support Investors had previously shrugged off governance problems at Huarong, China’s largest distressed debt manager. The assumption had always been that the firm’s ties to the Ministry of Finance would... 16th April 2021 · 5 mins read
